Italy v Ireland
Italy away - the cliche goes expect to get beaten up but win well eventually. I expect nothing different this time for Ireland. The Italians as always will be extremely powerful and will attempt to rough the Irish up, especially up front. But I expect Ireland to come through in the end and run in a few tries.
Italy have the titanic Sergio Parrise back for this campaign and he will be a massive boost to their lineup. Ireland have a host of injuries with Jamie Heaslip, Rob Kearney and try machine Tommy Bowe all injured. However, Sean O'Brien is a great replacement at number eight while Luke Fitz and Fergus McFadden are more than adequate replacements in the 3/4 line.
Ireland have always been comprehensive winners over Italy down the years bar a few times where strong weather made a difference. Accuweather is saying no rain and only light winds for Rome on Saturday so perfect conditions for rugby. However, this is the first game of the campaign and there will be rust on both sides at the start. I also expect the Italians to really front up for the first period and the crowd to get behind them. However, Ireland should break clear in the second half.
I think Ireland -6 @ 2.0 on the second half handicap with William Hill is a real steal and I'll take 3.5 units on it. It would be more but I'm holding back a little as its the first weekend of the campaign. So lets hope the only thing epic in Blue on Saturday will be their fantastic national anthem.
Friday, February 4, 2011
Week 1 Pick 1
Wales v England
There are not many games in the 6 Nations that can rival this one for intensity and desire to win. Wales naturally hate the English and always up their game for their arrival in Cardiff. While England know this is the pivotal game in their campaign. Win this and they have three home matches in a row and a possible tilt at the Slam.
Wales haven't won a game in their last seven but 6 of those came against the Southern Hempishere heavyweights including three losses to the mighty Blacks. England on the other hand seem to be turning the screw and rekindling some form for the first time in years. However, the fact remains that despite beating Australia home and away this English team is largey new to international rugby.
Wales have already got a lot of injuries, the most worrying of which is the loss of two front rowers. England are without some of their big names as well, in particular Lewis Moody.
Wales haven't lost at home to England in 7 years. England won this fixture in London last year but Wales shipped most of their points against when down to 14 men. A quick scan through Wales' results in the 6 Nations will show they rarely get blown out. Wales at home, in front of a sea of angry Welsh men, at night - it will be rowdy, intense and a great game.
I'm taking Wales and the points: +4 @ 2.0 on Bet365 for 3 units. Don't bet the house on this one or any game in the opening weekend but hopefully Wales keep 15 on the pitch and lay down a marker for this tournament and the Autumn down under.
There are not many games in the 6 Nations that can rival this one for intensity and desire to win. Wales naturally hate the English and always up their game for their arrival in Cardiff. While England know this is the pivotal game in their campaign. Win this and they have three home matches in a row and a possible tilt at the Slam.
Wales haven't won a game in their last seven but 6 of those came against the Southern Hempishere heavyweights including three losses to the mighty Blacks. England on the other hand seem to be turning the screw and rekindling some form for the first time in years. However, the fact remains that despite beating Australia home and away this English team is largey new to international rugby.
Wales have already got a lot of injuries, the most worrying of which is the loss of two front rowers. England are without some of their big names as well, in particular Lewis Moody.
Wales haven't lost at home to England in 7 years. England won this fixture in London last year but Wales shipped most of their points against when down to 14 men. A quick scan through Wales' results in the 6 Nations will show they rarely get blown out. Wales at home, in front of a sea of angry Welsh men, at night - it will be rowdy, intense and a great game.
I'm taking Wales and the points: +4 @ 2.0 on Bet365 for 3 units. Don't bet the house on this one or any game in the opening weekend but hopefully Wales keep 15 on the pitch and lay down a marker for this tournament and the Autumn down under.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
I LOVE this time of year when the 6 NATIONS is here!
Dublin, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Paris, Rome and London. These 6 cities are where the rugby world will be focused for the next few weeks. Rugby is not traditionally a sport where lots of money is bet but I think that is changing all the time as the sport matures - remember its not a long time since it became fully professional. This blog did very well last year and I am out to do better than that this year.
I'm going to start out by listing out what I think are the key factors in betting on rugby:
1. Motivation/Team Selection - How up for it is the team to win the game and has the strongest possible team been selected? Often if you bet on Magners League, previous results can't provide a reliable guide to future outcomes because the strength of the team fielded varies so much depending on the time of the year and international commitments.
Usually in the 6 Nations every team will put out their full team every time BUT this is a World Cup year! Teams have got the Autumn in New Zealand firmly on their minds. France I would say are the most likely to engage in a bit of squad rotation. It shouldn't be a huge factor but it is something to keep in mind.
2. Momentum - Huge in rugby. Winning is a habit. And so is losing. Follow these trends!
3. Injuries - Injuries will pile up as the tournament progresses. Ireland already have a worrying amount of them.
4. Weather - The weather is massive when deciding what to bet on in rugby. Strong wind and rain can strongly effect the outcome of a rugby game and crucially the amount of points scored. Wales have an indoor stadium but both teams have to agree for the roof to be closed.
5. Previous Results - It's amazing how often the same results crop up in rugby. Home advantage is crucial.
Have I missed anything important? Leave me a comment.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Full 6 Nations Fixture List:
Date KO (GMT) Home Score Away Venue
Fri 4th Feb 11 19:45 Wales v England Millennium Stadium
Sat 5th Feb 11 14:30 Italy v Ireland Stadio Flaminio
Sat 5th Feb 11 17:00 France v Scotland Stade de France
Sat 12th Feb 11 14:30 England v Italy Twickenham
Sat 12th Feb 11 17:00 Scotland v Wales Murrayfield
Sun 13th Feb 11 15:00 Ireland v France Aviva Stadium
Sat 26th Feb 11 14:30 Italy v Wales Stadio Flaminio
Sat 26th Feb 11 17:00 England v France Twickenham
Sun 27th Feb 11 15:00 Scotland v Ireland Murrayfield
Sat 12th Mar 11 14:30 Italy v France Stadio Flaminio
Sat 12th Mar 11 17:00 Wales v Ireland Millennium Stadium
Sun 13th Mar 11 15:00 England v Scotland Twickenham
Sat 19th Mar 11 14:30 Scotland v Italy Murrayfield
Sat 19th Mar 11 17:00 Ireland v England Aviva Stadium
Sat 19th Mar 11 19:45 France v Wales Stade de France
As you can see every game is a big game and there is no easy wins.
------------------------------------------------------------
Betting:
Key here is to make sure you have the opportunity to use every betting outlet possible. I'm going to be quoting the best price from a wide variety of bookmakers. Nearly all of them accept laser cards for those without credit cards. Get the best price and don't hand away value. Also if your signing up for a new bookmaker make sure you avail of whatever bonus offer they have - do a quick search to find a link to a bonus if you can't find one of their site.
I'll be using the unit system again. 1-10 unit picks. This is how you can rank the strength of my conviction on every play. Remember though there are no certainties in gambling and only bet what you can afford to lose.
Here is what I hope to do in regard to the week schedule:
Monday/Tuesday - Line Predictions, Early Spreads
Thursday/Friday/Saturday - Picks posted up
Sunday/Monday - Review of the games and betting performance
Lets make some money!
I'm going to start out by listing out what I think are the key factors in betting on rugby:
1. Motivation/Team Selection - How up for it is the team to win the game and has the strongest possible team been selected? Often if you bet on Magners League, previous results can't provide a reliable guide to future outcomes because the strength of the team fielded varies so much depending on the time of the year and international commitments.
Usually in the 6 Nations every team will put out their full team every time BUT this is a World Cup year! Teams have got the Autumn in New Zealand firmly on their minds. France I would say are the most likely to engage in a bit of squad rotation. It shouldn't be a huge factor but it is something to keep in mind.
2. Momentum - Huge in rugby. Winning is a habit. And so is losing. Follow these trends!
3. Injuries - Injuries will pile up as the tournament progresses. Ireland already have a worrying amount of them.
4. Weather - The weather is massive when deciding what to bet on in rugby. Strong wind and rain can strongly effect the outcome of a rugby game and crucially the amount of points scored. Wales have an indoor stadium but both teams have to agree for the roof to be closed.
5. Previous Results - It's amazing how often the same results crop up in rugby. Home advantage is crucial.
Have I missed anything important? Leave me a comment.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Full 6 Nations Fixture List:
Date KO (GMT) Home Score Away Venue
Fri 4th Feb 11 19:45 Wales v England Millennium Stadium
Sat 5th Feb 11 14:30 Italy v Ireland Stadio Flaminio
Sat 5th Feb 11 17:00 France v Scotland Stade de France
Sat 12th Feb 11 14:30 England v Italy Twickenham
Sat 12th Feb 11 17:00 Scotland v Wales Murrayfield
Sun 13th Feb 11 15:00 Ireland v France Aviva Stadium
Sat 26th Feb 11 14:30 Italy v Wales Stadio Flaminio
Sat 26th Feb 11 17:00 England v France Twickenham
Sun 27th Feb 11 15:00 Scotland v Ireland Murrayfield
Sat 12th Mar 11 14:30 Italy v France Stadio Flaminio
Sat 12th Mar 11 17:00 Wales v Ireland Millennium Stadium
Sun 13th Mar 11 15:00 England v Scotland Twickenham
Sat 19th Mar 11 14:30 Scotland v Italy Murrayfield
Sat 19th Mar 11 17:00 Ireland v England Aviva Stadium
Sat 19th Mar 11 19:45 France v Wales Stade de France
As you can see every game is a big game and there is no easy wins.
------------------------------------------------------------
Betting:
Key here is to make sure you have the opportunity to use every betting outlet possible. I'm going to be quoting the best price from a wide variety of bookmakers. Nearly all of them accept laser cards for those without credit cards. Get the best price and don't hand away value. Also if your signing up for a new bookmaker make sure you avail of whatever bonus offer they have - do a quick search to find a link to a bonus if you can't find one of their site.
I'll be using the unit system again. 1-10 unit picks. This is how you can rank the strength of my conviction on every play. Remember though there are no certainties in gambling and only bet what you can afford to lose.
Here is what I hope to do in regard to the week schedule:
Monday/Tuesday - Line Predictions, Early Spreads
Thursday/Friday/Saturday - Picks posted up
Sunday/Monday - Review of the games and betting performance
Lets make some money!
Monday, May 31, 2010
Complete Blog Betting Record Update
Stats at End of the May 2010:
Official Picks: 6-1 - Profit: 17.04 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €17,040 profit or more realisticially at €20 a unit you would be up to €340.80.
All the picks so far have been rugby picks but with the World Cup coming up for June and July that is were the focus will turn. So get your bankrolls sorted for that. There is also some rugby internationals coming up and if there is value you will here about them.
Official Picks: 6-1 - Profit: 17.04 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €17,040 profit or more realisticially at €20 a unit you would be up to €340.80.
All the picks so far have been rugby picks but with the World Cup coming up for June and July that is were the focus will turn. So get your bankrolls sorted for that. There is also some rugby internationals coming up and if there is value you will here about them.
Results Recap
I never posted that the last two picks were wins. As predicted Glasgow beat the Scarlets away resulting in a 3.6 unit profit win. The Toulon and Cardiff match turned into a try fest in the second half in seering heat of South France as the Blues pulled off the upset for a 3.32 unit profit win.
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Official Pick: Toulon v Cardiff Blues
This is the Amlin Challenge Cup Final and it is been played in Marseilles effectively making it a home game for Toulon who are based just down the road. The match will be played in perfect weather conditions highly suited for running rugby.
Toulon qualified for the final negotiating past a poor Scarlets team and a dogged Connacht side in Galway. Cardiff had a more impressive route blowing away Newcastle away and then travelling to Wasps in bad weather conditions and beating them by a score.
Toulon are coming off the back of a loss in the Top 14 semi final playoffs to Clermont last weekend. This will have been a huge disappointment for Toulon as their main focus was winning the French Championship this season and often put out a "weaker" team for Europe. Although, it is a indication of their vast resources that their second team has made it to the final. Again this week they have made 8 changes from the team that lost week.
Cardiff on the other hand have a huge focus on this competition are in serious form. They haven't lost away since early January. They are playing an exciting brand of rugby as well utilising their talented players all over the pitch. No Welsh team has ever won a European competition and they will be eager to change this. Cardiff's week off last week will also contribute to their physical readiness.
The spread on this game is Toulon -5 but there are just too many uncertainities to take this price I think. How will Toulon react to their loss last week? Can Cardiff outplay them away from home? For these reasons I am making an official pick on the points total going with over 40.5 points @ 1.83 - 4 units with Paddy Power. Toulon are a free scoring team while Cardiff are also more then capable of playing exciting running rugby. Toulon's defensive cohesion won't be brilliant with so many changes which could open up some running lanes for the talented Cardiff backline.
Toulon qualified for the final negotiating past a poor Scarlets team and a dogged Connacht side in Galway. Cardiff had a more impressive route blowing away Newcastle away and then travelling to Wasps in bad weather conditions and beating them by a score.
Toulon are coming off the back of a loss in the Top 14 semi final playoffs to Clermont last weekend. This will have been a huge disappointment for Toulon as their main focus was winning the French Championship this season and often put out a "weaker" team for Europe. Although, it is a indication of their vast resources that their second team has made it to the final. Again this week they have made 8 changes from the team that lost week.
Cardiff on the other hand have a huge focus on this competition are in serious form. They haven't lost away since early January. They are playing an exciting brand of rugby as well utilising their talented players all over the pitch. No Welsh team has ever won a European competition and they will be eager to change this. Cardiff's week off last week will also contribute to their physical readiness.
The spread on this game is Toulon -5 but there are just too many uncertainities to take this price I think. How will Toulon react to their loss last week? Can Cardiff outplay them away from home? For these reasons I am making an official pick on the points total going with over 40.5 points @ 1.83 - 4 units with Paddy Power. Toulon are a free scoring team while Cardiff are also more then capable of playing exciting running rugby. Toulon's defensive cohesion won't be brilliant with so many changes which could open up some running lanes for the talented Cardiff backline.
Friday, May 7, 2010
Official Pick: Scarlets v Glasgow
When I first saw this line I was confused and I still remain confused. I was expecting the bookmakers to be taking points from Glasgow not giving them! Paddy Power has this game at +4 to Glasgow most of the other bookmakers have it at +3.
To set the scene Glasgow have qualified for the Magners League playoffs but have not yet guaranteed a home semi-final which would obviously be of substantial benefit to them. To have a shot at this they need to win with a bonus point. However, they have only managed to accomplish this feat once this season previously. The also need the Ospreys not to win with a bonus point. They play the Dragons in a Welsh derby and the Ospreys have lost both times they have played the Dragons this season. However, the Dragons are putting out a weak team. The Scarlets in contrast are playing for nothing only pride. They have no possibility of making the playoffs and there only shot of making the European Cup lies with Cardiff winning the Challenge Cup against Toulon.
Form: Scarlets have one win in the last five which came against a Connacht side focused on Europe. Although three of these games were away. Glasgow have three wins in the last five. Although the two defeats came away from home but against Munster and Leinster which are two of the hardest places to win rugby games.
The Scarlets are 4-4 at home this season in the Magners League. While Glasgow have three wins and three losses and two draws away from Firhill. Only today former Scarlets outhalf Phil Bennett said that he fears for the future of the Scarlets owing to the dip in form as they moved to their new stadium and the drop in attendence that has accompanied it.
Notable Team News: The Scarlets get a huge boost with the return of Welsh outhalf Stephen Jones. As for Glasgow the main news is that one of the Killer B's backrow John Barclay is out.
Pick: The Scarlets have only pride to play for and will seek to throw the ball around. Glasgow are the superior side and they have plenty to play for with a home semi-final on the line. I think Glasgow are the favourites for this game even though they haven't won outside Scotland since December. The official pick is Glasgow +4 @ 1.9 with Paddy Power - 4 units.
To set the scene Glasgow have qualified for the Magners League playoffs but have not yet guaranteed a home semi-final which would obviously be of substantial benefit to them. To have a shot at this they need to win with a bonus point. However, they have only managed to accomplish this feat once this season previously. The also need the Ospreys not to win with a bonus point. They play the Dragons in a Welsh derby and the Ospreys have lost both times they have played the Dragons this season. However, the Dragons are putting out a weak team. The Scarlets in contrast are playing for nothing only pride. They have no possibility of making the playoffs and there only shot of making the European Cup lies with Cardiff winning the Challenge Cup against Toulon.
Form: Scarlets have one win in the last five which came against a Connacht side focused on Europe. Although three of these games were away. Glasgow have three wins in the last five. Although the two defeats came away from home but against Munster and Leinster which are two of the hardest places to win rugby games.
The Scarlets are 4-4 at home this season in the Magners League. While Glasgow have three wins and three losses and two draws away from Firhill. Only today former Scarlets outhalf Phil Bennett said that he fears for the future of the Scarlets owing to the dip in form as they moved to their new stadium and the drop in attendence that has accompanied it.
Notable Team News: The Scarlets get a huge boost with the return of Welsh outhalf Stephen Jones. As for Glasgow the main news is that one of the Killer B's backrow John Barclay is out.
Pick: The Scarlets have only pride to play for and will seek to throw the ball around. Glasgow are the superior side and they have plenty to play for with a home semi-final on the line. I think Glasgow are the favourites for this game even though they haven't won outside Scotland since December. The official pick is Glasgow +4 @ 1.9 with Paddy Power - 4 units.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Official Pick: Result
Winner winner chicken dinner.
Game transpired as expected. Leinster looked fairly rudderless and tired at this stage of the season. Might be a good time to start laying points against them. Toulouse outclassed them completely in the scrum. Cian Healy won't be looking back at this game with any fond memories and it is extremely worrying for the future of the Irish front row that he got beat up so badly.
Bit annoyed I didn't go with my instinct and take the bet against Munster as well but I decided to go no-bet because they are so inconsistent of late and Munster in Europe you just expect them to pull an extra 20% out of somewhere. Like Leinster they looked tired and this season has really taken its toll.
Official Result:
Toulouse -6 @ 1.9 - 2.5 units - Profit: 2.25 units
I'll be definately be taking a strong look at this weekend's Magners League fixtures. Everything will depend on the teams that are put out there with many teams having nothing to play for. I don't expect to see the bookmakers post any lines on these games until probably the morning of the games. So stay tuned.
Game transpired as expected. Leinster looked fairly rudderless and tired at this stage of the season. Might be a good time to start laying points against them. Toulouse outclassed them completely in the scrum. Cian Healy won't be looking back at this game with any fond memories and it is extremely worrying for the future of the Irish front row that he got beat up so badly.
Bit annoyed I didn't go with my instinct and take the bet against Munster as well but I decided to go no-bet because they are so inconsistent of late and Munster in Europe you just expect them to pull an extra 20% out of somewhere. Like Leinster they looked tired and this season has really taken its toll.
Official Result:
Toulouse -6 @ 1.9 - 2.5 units - Profit: 2.25 units
I'll be definately be taking a strong look at this weekend's Magners League fixtures. Everything will depend on the teams that are put out there with many teams having nothing to play for. I don't expect to see the bookmakers post any lines on these games until probably the morning of the games. So stay tuned.
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Official Pick - Toulouse v Leinster
"Oh, and be careful. Remember you're gonna to be in deep south."
A line from the film Football Factory designed to intimidate the Chelsea hooligans when they are heading down to South London to kick off with the Millwall casuals. There something inherently scary and unknown about the deep south. Whether it be London, USA or the Amazon Jungle in South America its all about going into a place you aren't comfortable or welcome and coming out with something you need.
In rugby terms heading to the Deep South of France is about as intimidating as it gets. Rugby is the more then a hobby here it is an obession. And Leinster have the task of facing France's greatest European side Stade Toulousain. They have the pedigree and the hunger to win and they will be out to make the final in Paris.
Leinster are defending champions are out to defend their crown in Michael Cheika's last season before he departs to coach Stade Francais next season. Leinster's recent form has been poor. The loss last week against Glasgow can be discounted as a full 15 players were rested. Before that there was a defeat to Connacht away. A very lucky win against the Ospreys and Clermont in the previous round preceeded these matches. However, Leinster still have quality all over the park but they have suffered a huge loss since Johnny Sexton is out and Shaun Berne starts at 10. He is far from a natural outhalf and Leinster will lose points due to this and is the main reason they can't be favoured in this match.
Toulouse are littered with French international talent. Clerc, Fritz, Jauzion, Haymens, Skrela, Dusautoir and Servant to mention but a few. Kiwi scrum half Byron Kelleher is also a tallismanic figure for the French at scrum half. The French have lost 11 games (1 in Europe) so far this season in the rough and tumble French Top 14. However, they have made the playoffs already. They value Europe more then any other French team. Irish teams internationally in France have a terrible record. Irish clubs have a better record away and indeed Leinster toppled Toulouse in this competition 4 years ago in a remarkable 41-35 win.
If Leinster are to win this game it will require something unbelievably special. They are going to the Lions den without an influential outhalf and with their form very much in question. They could win this game however they will need to score early and often for it to happen. I forsee David Skrela keeping the scoreboard ticking over whilest Leinster fail to do likewise, as Leinster force it in the second half they will make mistakes and leave gaps for the ruthless French backs to exploit. Official Pick - Toulouse -6 @ Paddy Power 1.9 - 2.5 units. Toulouse to tell Leinster to "jog on".
Note this line is moving further towards the Toulouse win, when it opened some books had it at -5 but now most have it at -7 so take it at -6 below that crucial 7 point number. Although if you fancy -7 Boylesports are offering it at even money.
A line from the film Football Factory designed to intimidate the Chelsea hooligans when they are heading down to South London to kick off with the Millwall casuals. There something inherently scary and unknown about the deep south. Whether it be London, USA or the Amazon Jungle in South America its all about going into a place you aren't comfortable or welcome and coming out with something you need.
In rugby terms heading to the Deep South of France is about as intimidating as it gets. Rugby is the more then a hobby here it is an obession. And Leinster have the task of facing France's greatest European side Stade Toulousain. They have the pedigree and the hunger to win and they will be out to make the final in Paris.
Leinster are defending champions are out to defend their crown in Michael Cheika's last season before he departs to coach Stade Francais next season. Leinster's recent form has been poor. The loss last week against Glasgow can be discounted as a full 15 players were rested. Before that there was a defeat to Connacht away. A very lucky win against the Ospreys and Clermont in the previous round preceeded these matches. However, Leinster still have quality all over the park but they have suffered a huge loss since Johnny Sexton is out and Shaun Berne starts at 10. He is far from a natural outhalf and Leinster will lose points due to this and is the main reason they can't be favoured in this match.
Toulouse are littered with French international talent. Clerc, Fritz, Jauzion, Haymens, Skrela, Dusautoir and Servant to mention but a few. Kiwi scrum half Byron Kelleher is also a tallismanic figure for the French at scrum half. The French have lost 11 games (1 in Europe) so far this season in the rough and tumble French Top 14. However, they have made the playoffs already. They value Europe more then any other French team. Irish teams internationally in France have a terrible record. Irish clubs have a better record away and indeed Leinster toppled Toulouse in this competition 4 years ago in a remarkable 41-35 win.
If Leinster are to win this game it will require something unbelievably special. They are going to the Lions den without an influential outhalf and with their form very much in question. They could win this game however they will need to score early and often for it to happen. I forsee David Skrela keeping the scoreboard ticking over whilest Leinster fail to do likewise, as Leinster force it in the second half they will make mistakes and leave gaps for the ruthless French backs to exploit. Official Pick - Toulouse -6 @ Paddy Power 1.9 - 2.5 units. Toulouse to tell Leinster to "jog on".
Note this line is moving further towards the Toulouse win, when it opened some books had it at -5 but now most have it at -7 so take it at -6 below that crucial 7 point number. Although if you fancy -7 Boylesports are offering it at even money.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
The Path to Riches - Official Schedule
After a very successful 6 Nations the time has come to move this blog forward.
Here is the official schedule for the blog to come:
May 2010:
European Rugby Cup Semi-Finals and Final.
June/July 2010:
FIFA World Cup
Late August 2010 - January 2011:
NFL and College Football
These are the items I will definitely be posting on as always there could be some ad-hoc picks in between and also additions to the official schedule above.
For the conclusion of the European Rugby season I hope to pick some winners in the remaining three matches in what is very much France v Ireland at the moment.
The World Cup is THE betting event of the year and millions will be staked over the course of this competition, this will be a marathon not a sprint but hopefully there will be gold (or something blingin') around our necks by the end.
Then comes the handicappers dream - Football Season! Covering the spread on Saturdays and Sundays is a national obession in the USA, lets bring some of that mania here but with logic at the core and no biasedness in the analysis.
Here is the official schedule for the blog to come:
May 2010:
European Rugby Cup Semi-Finals and Final.
June/July 2010:
FIFA World Cup
Late August 2010 - January 2011:
NFL and College Football
These are the items I will definitely be posting on as always there could be some ad-hoc picks in between and also additions to the official schedule above.
For the conclusion of the European Rugby season I hope to pick some winners in the remaining three matches in what is very much France v Ireland at the moment.
The World Cup is THE betting event of the year and millions will be staked over the course of this competition, this will be a marathon not a sprint but hopefully there will be gold (or something blingin') around our necks by the end.
Then comes the handicappers dream - Football Season! Covering the spread on Saturdays and Sundays is a national obession in the USA, lets bring some of that mania here but with logic at the core and no biasedness in the analysis.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Magner's League Fixtures - 26th/27th March
Magner's League Fixtures for this weekend:
Friday 26th March
Blues v Ulster - Cardiff City Stadium - BBCw - 19:05
Edinburgh v Scarlets - Murrayfield - 19:30
Munster v Warriors - Thomond Park Stadium -Setanta(I) - 20:00
Saturday 27th March
Leinster v Connacht - Royal Dublin Society - Setanta(I) - 16:30
Dragons v Ospreys - Rodney Parade - S4C - 18:30
Interestingly, the lines and odds on the Magner's League are always put up very late by the bookmakers due to the degree of uncertainty they have with these matches. Team selection is vital and previous results must be interpreted in light of the team available at the time of the match - i.e. were the internationals available or not.
Friday 26th March
Blues v Ulster - Cardiff City Stadium - BBCw - 19:05
Edinburgh v Scarlets - Murrayfield - 19:30
Munster v Warriors - Thomond Park Stadium -Setanta(I) - 20:00
Saturday 27th March
Leinster v Connacht - Royal Dublin Society - Setanta(I) - 16:30
Dragons v Ospreys - Rodney Parade - S4C - 18:30
Interestingly, the lines and odds on the Magner's League are always put up very late by the bookmakers due to the degree of uncertainty they have with these matches. Team selection is vital and previous results must be interpreted in light of the team available at the time of the match - i.e. were the internationals available or not.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Blog - Where next?
This blog will continue on.
I forsee picks on the Magner's League and other sports to come. As the soccer season comes to an end there is always some value to had and I will be looking closely at that market for any potential.
I guarantee there will be picks for the quarter finals of the Heineken Cup.
So stay tuned...
I forsee picks on the Magner's League and other sports to come. As the soccer season comes to an end there is always some value to had and I will be looking closely at that market for any potential.
I guarantee there will be picks for the quarter finals of the Heineken Cup.
So stay tuned...
6 Nations - Final Betting Stats
Stats at End of the 2010 6 Nations:
Official Picks: 3-1 - Profit: 7.87 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €7,870 profit.
Accumulators: 0-1 - Loss: 1 unit.
Official Picks: 3-1 - Profit: 7.87 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €7,870 profit.
Accumulators: 0-1 - Loss: 1 unit.
Week 5 - Recap
I had no official picks last week because my betting roll for this month is negligible after a bad Week 4, also a long month pay wise with 5 weekends and Paddy's Day between payments. My 100% guarantee to you, my readers, is that any bet posted on here I will have backed. I wouldn't recommend anything to you that I don't have money on.
Recap:
Wales v Italy - Wales ripped the Italians to shreds in Cardiff to end their 6 Nations on a high. The yellow card was again crucial which allowed the Welsh flair to overcome the Italian grit. Wales aren't a great side and this has been proven in this competition and they have a mountain of work to do before the World Cup to improve. Italy will be happy with their win against Scotland and their creditable results in other games.
Ireland v Scotland - what a let down this was for every Irish supporter. Johnny Sexton was great in the outfield but his kicking let him down big time and cost Ireland the game. You could see it in his face before he was taken off that his head was gone. Kicking is hugely mental and if your confidence is shot you can forget about it. I've no doubt he will be back and put the kicking right. Overall a good 6 Nations for him. Rob Kearney on the other hand needs to really sort his life out. One good season and now it seems he is more interested in been a celebrity than a top class rugby player. Terrible whenever he played in this competition. Speaking of which the whole celebrity culture seems to be taking over the Irish team, I'm sick of seeing them in nightclubs etc. during the biggest annual rugby competition in the world. Hit the gym, hit the training pitch, hit the film room but Keith Earls leading the Limerick parade 3 days before a shot at the Triple Crown, come on that's not right.
Well done to Scotland, they deserved the win on the day and the "Killer B's" back row is quickly becoming one of the most formidable units in world rugby. Glasgow will be a force to be reckoned with in the rest of the Magner's League. Scotland only lost by a max of 9 points in this competition to France. They easily could have won every other game they played.
France v England - France got the job done but they weren't overly impressive. But for once they didn't need to turn on the style - to quote a NASCAR driver their motto going into this one was "GIT ER DONE". England showed some potential for the first time in this one and Johnny Wilkinson's starting England job is gone. Toby Flood is the new man in possession.
Recap:
Wales v Italy - Wales ripped the Italians to shreds in Cardiff to end their 6 Nations on a high. The yellow card was again crucial which allowed the Welsh flair to overcome the Italian grit. Wales aren't a great side and this has been proven in this competition and they have a mountain of work to do before the World Cup to improve. Italy will be happy with their win against Scotland and their creditable results in other games.
Ireland v Scotland - what a let down this was for every Irish supporter. Johnny Sexton was great in the outfield but his kicking let him down big time and cost Ireland the game. You could see it in his face before he was taken off that his head was gone. Kicking is hugely mental and if your confidence is shot you can forget about it. I've no doubt he will be back and put the kicking right. Overall a good 6 Nations for him. Rob Kearney on the other hand needs to really sort his life out. One good season and now it seems he is more interested in been a celebrity than a top class rugby player. Terrible whenever he played in this competition. Speaking of which the whole celebrity culture seems to be taking over the Irish team, I'm sick of seeing them in nightclubs etc. during the biggest annual rugby competition in the world. Hit the gym, hit the training pitch, hit the film room but Keith Earls leading the Limerick parade 3 days before a shot at the Triple Crown, come on that's not right.
Well done to Scotland, they deserved the win on the day and the "Killer B's" back row is quickly becoming one of the most formidable units in world rugby. Glasgow will be a force to be reckoned with in the rest of the Magner's League. Scotland only lost by a max of 9 points in this competition to France. They easily could have won every other game they played.
France v England - France got the job done but they weren't overly impressive. But for once they didn't need to turn on the style - to quote a NASCAR driver their motto going into this one was "GIT ER DONE". England showed some potential for the first time in this one and Johnny Wilkinson's starting England job is gone. Toby Flood is the new man in possession.
Week 4 - Recap
Well Italy let down the 100% official pick record with a fairly poor display in the Stade. As I warned before the game a sin binning would ruin the pick and thats exactly what happened in the first half. Surprisingly, Italy nearly covered in the second half as the French began to relax and focus on England. In the end they won by 26 points narrowly missing the 24 point spread.
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Official Pick - France v Italy
Before I get to the official pick a word on yesterday. Ireland v Wales - Ireland dispatched Wales without too much complication yesterday and it was brilliant to see Keith Earls add to his already impressive try scoring record. The sin binning in the first half decided this one proving that any bet can be turned on its head with one of these. Lee Byrne jumping out of play to stop himself being tackled was the biggest act of cowardice since your last local drive-by-shooting. Man up Lee Byrne. Scotland v England - had an unofficial pick on this one on England (-4). Didn't come in but as we say betting sometimes isn't a straight marginal consumption game for those you who do economics. We gain utility by making a game more interesting and having the banter with your friends by being in the same boat win or lose.
But back to the official researched picks today:
France v Italy:
France - on for the grand slam, just two games to go and it is theirs again. This is were France blow up, they are not good as favourites - I could easily point to their World Cup semi final v England when they blew the chance to go win the trophy for the first time in their back yard. Contrast this against the All Blacks in the previous round when they played brilliantly as underdogs. France are at full strength aside from the titanic Mathieu Bastareaud who sits on the bench with a knock.
Italy - will seek to front up against the French and keep this one tight throughout. Italy probably have the pack best able to compete with this remarkable French scrum in the tournament. Italy are coming off their championship saving win against Scotland and will be boyent going into this one.
Pick - France will win but the handicap of -24 or -25 depending where you can get on looks too big. Historically, Italy's average spread is +13 in the 6 Nations while France are +8. Against each other France have run out +28 spread winners but that includes the 50-8 thrasing when France had just being humilated by England. France have no incentive to run Italy's nose into the dirt here. All they need is the win, they have the points difference well in hand if disaster happens and they blow the Grand Slam next week against England. I toyed with taking them +11 on the half time handicap but I feared a quick start from the French and on the balance the handicap on the whole game seems to big. Official pick is Italy (+24) @ 1.91 with Paddy Power -3 units. Get on with Boylesports if you can because they have the spread at evens but I only put on this blog the exact bet and odds I can get. Pray for no Italians in the sin bin and this one should add to the winnings.
But back to the official researched picks today:
France v Italy:
France - on for the grand slam, just two games to go and it is theirs again. This is were France blow up, they are not good as favourites - I could easily point to their World Cup semi final v England when they blew the chance to go win the trophy for the first time in their back yard. Contrast this against the All Blacks in the previous round when they played brilliantly as underdogs. France are at full strength aside from the titanic Mathieu Bastareaud who sits on the bench with a knock.
Italy - will seek to front up against the French and keep this one tight throughout. Italy probably have the pack best able to compete with this remarkable French scrum in the tournament. Italy are coming off their championship saving win against Scotland and will be boyent going into this one.
Pick - France will win but the handicap of -24 or -25 depending where you can get on looks too big. Historically, Italy's average spread is +13 in the 6 Nations while France are +8. Against each other France have run out +28 spread winners but that includes the 50-8 thrasing when France had just being humilated by England. France have no incentive to run Italy's nose into the dirt here. All they need is the win, they have the points difference well in hand if disaster happens and they blow the Grand Slam next week against England. I toyed with taking them +11 on the half time handicap but I feared a quick start from the French and on the balance the handicap on the whole game seems to big. Official pick is Italy (+24) @ 1.91 with Paddy Power -3 units. Get on with Boylesports if you can because they have the spread at evens but I only put on this blog the exact bet and odds I can get. Pray for no Italians in the sin bin and this one should add to the winnings.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Week 3 Recap
Another 4 unit official pick comes in. This one was very tight though, I couldn't believe Wales had failed to register a single point in the first half against France. A great second half aided by the sinbinning saw Shane Williams dance through with a minute to go for Wales to cover the points line. The second half Welsh theory strikes again. The importance of sinbinning is also highlighted there as it has in every game of the 6 Nations were someone is binned. The books had the lines fairly accurate for all the games this weekend as the results show. I missed the Italy v Scotland match due to exam commitments and this is the only game I plan on missing for the whole tournament and I suppose if your going to miss one, this is the one to miss. Ireland produced an epic display to beat the England in their house. 99 tackles and only one missed, Jay-Z could write a song about this match. I got a bet in on that match as well for Ireland to cover a +2.5 spread and under 38.5 points at 3.3. That covered again by the skin of my teeth but I won't complain. It wasn't an official pick so I didn't update the website with it.
Two long weeks until the next fixtures. Why can't we have 6 Nations every weekend? I may post up a few random picks if I find some value over the next 2 weeks so stay tuned.
Stats at End of Week 3 of the 6 Nations: Official Picks: 3-0 - Profit: 10.87 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €10,870 profit. Accumulators: 0-1 - Loss: 1 unit.
Two long weeks until the next fixtures. Why can't we have 6 Nations every weekend? I may post up a few random picks if I find some value over the next 2 weeks so stay tuned.
Stats at End of Week 3 of the 6 Nations: Official Picks: 3-0 - Profit: 10.87 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €10,870 profit. Accumulators: 0-1 - Loss: 1 unit.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Official Pick - Wales v France
Wales - missing several players due to injury and drunk motorway buggy driving. The pack will be hit significantly. Wales just about turned around a shocking performance at home to Scotland to rob a win after the away team lost two players to the bin in the dying minutes. However, Wales proved they can score points and Shane Williams was looking back to his electric best. Gatland will be out to play rugby and use the backline with the weakened pack unable to dominate this huge French pack.
France - well what can we say, France in there last match were ruthless, mean and dangerous. France looked the complete package in their last game and probably the best team in the world right now. But that is France all over, world beaters one day, losing to Argentina at home the next. France have had a few injuries but unlike the Welsh they have superior depth.
Prediction: This game is going to be very exciting and the partsan Welsh crowd will play its part espicially under the lights in the Millenium Stadium. If France are going to lose a game in the 6 Nations this is it, their inconsistency may come back to haunt them again away from home. Wales have been a thorn in Frances side over the years and even though they aren't at peak at the moment they will still pit a huge challenge. My pick is Wales Over 16.5 points at 1.9 for 4 units on Betfair. This bet is also available on Paddy Power at 1.83 but the over is only 15.5 points. Wales have only not scored 16.5 points in 3 games in the 6 Nations in the last 2.5 years, in those games they didn't the scored 15 and 16 twice. France are well capable of shipping some points espicially away from home as their form down the years shows.
France - well what can we say, France in there last match were ruthless, mean and dangerous. France looked the complete package in their last game and probably the best team in the world right now. But that is France all over, world beaters one day, losing to Argentina at home the next. France have had a few injuries but unlike the Welsh they have superior depth.
Prediction: This game is going to be very exciting and the partsan Welsh crowd will play its part espicially under the lights in the Millenium Stadium. If France are going to lose a game in the 6 Nations this is it, their inconsistency may come back to haunt them again away from home. Wales have been a thorn in Frances side over the years and even though they aren't at peak at the moment they will still pit a huge challenge. My pick is Wales Over 16.5 points at 1.9 for 4 units on Betfair. This bet is also available on Paddy Power at 1.83 but the over is only 15.5 points. Wales have only not scored 16.5 points in 3 games in the 6 Nations in the last 2.5 years, in those games they didn't the scored 15 and 16 twice. France are well capable of shipping some points espicially away from home as their form down the years shows.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Week 3 Fixtures and Ultra Early Handicap Forecasts
Friday 26 February
20:00 - Wales v France - Wales (+9)
Saturday 27 February
13:30 (14:30 local) - Italy v Scotland - Italy (+3)
16:00 - England v Ireland - England (-3)
20:00 - Wales v France - Wales (+9)
Saturday 27 February
13:30 (14:30 local) - Italy v Scotland - Italy (+3)
16:00 - England v Ireland - England (-3)
Week 2 Recap
So another 4 unit win (without the juice). Happy times. I was delighted to see Wales getting hammered in the first half because I knew Gatland would destroy them at half time and if any of them wanted to be able to walk down a Welsh street in the future they would have to come out and at least beat the -5 2nd half handicap. Turned out they easily did it proving the Wales as a 2nd half team theory.
As regards the other games I think my decision not to do an accumulator was justified. I had a feeling what happened in Paris would happen and I'm not prepared to bet against Ireland so decided to stay away from the accumulator. Nice day for the bookies though, Ireland didn't cover (although Paddy Power did say they took more action on France), punters lost alot on Wales failing to cover and Italy getting the cover also hurt the public as we saw that line moving aggressively for England. Wouldn't say there were too many accumulator winners this weekend either.
Stats at End of Week 2 of the 6 Nations:
Official Picks: 2-0 - Profit: 7.27 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €7,270 profit.
Accumulators: 0-1 - Loss: 1 unit
Since it's now 2 weeks till the next game I may post up a few random picks here if I find any value.
Also expect a very early line prediction soon.
As regards the other games I think my decision not to do an accumulator was justified. I had a feeling what happened in Paris would happen and I'm not prepared to bet against Ireland so decided to stay away from the accumulator. Nice day for the bookies though, Ireland didn't cover (although Paddy Power did say they took more action on France), punters lost alot on Wales failing to cover and Italy getting the cover also hurt the public as we saw that line moving aggressively for England. Wouldn't say there were too many accumulator winners this weekend either.
Stats at End of Week 2 of the 6 Nations:
Official Picks: 2-0 - Profit: 7.27 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €7,270 profit.
Accumulators: 0-1 - Loss: 1 unit
Since it's now 2 weeks till the next game I may post up a few random picks here if I find any value.
Also expect a very early line prediction soon.
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