Before I get to the official pick a word on yesterday. Ireland v Wales - Ireland dispatched Wales without too much complication yesterday and it was brilliant to see Keith Earls add to his already impressive try scoring record. The sin binning in the first half decided this one proving that any bet can be turned on its head with one of these. Lee Byrne jumping out of play to stop himself being tackled was the biggest act of cowardice since your last local drive-by-shooting. Man up Lee Byrne. Scotland v England - had an unofficial pick on this one on England (-4). Didn't come in but as we say betting sometimes isn't a straight marginal consumption game for those you who do economics. We gain utility by making a game more interesting and having the banter with your friends by being in the same boat win or lose.
But back to the official researched picks today:
France v Italy:
France - on for the grand slam, just two games to go and it is theirs again. This is were France blow up, they are not good as favourites - I could easily point to their World Cup semi final v England when they blew the chance to go win the trophy for the first time in their back yard. Contrast this against the All Blacks in the previous round when they played brilliantly as underdogs. France are at full strength aside from the titanic Mathieu Bastareaud who sits on the bench with a knock.
Italy - will seek to front up against the French and keep this one tight throughout. Italy probably have the pack best able to compete with this remarkable French scrum in the tournament. Italy are coming off their championship saving win against Scotland and will be boyent going into this one.
Pick - France will win but the handicap of -24 or -25 depending where you can get on looks too big. Historically, Italy's average spread is +13 in the 6 Nations while France are +8. Against each other France have run out +28 spread winners but that includes the 50-8 thrasing when France had just being humilated by England. France have no incentive to run Italy's nose into the dirt here. All they need is the win, they have the points difference well in hand if disaster happens and they blow the Grand Slam next week against England. I toyed with taking them +11 on the half time handicap but I feared a quick start from the French and on the balance the handicap on the whole game seems to big. Official pick is Italy (+24) @ 1.91 with Paddy Power -3 units. Get on with Boylesports if you can because they have the spread at evens but I only put on this blog the exact bet and odds I can get. Pray for no Italians in the sin bin and this one should add to the winnings.
Showing posts with label France. Show all posts
Showing posts with label France. Show all posts
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Friday, February 26, 2010
Official Pick - Wales v France
Wales - missing several players due to injury and drunk motorway buggy driving. The pack will be hit significantly. Wales just about turned around a shocking performance at home to Scotland to rob a win after the away team lost two players to the bin in the dying minutes. However, Wales proved they can score points and Shane Williams was looking back to his electric best. Gatland will be out to play rugby and use the backline with the weakened pack unable to dominate this huge French pack.
France - well what can we say, France in there last match were ruthless, mean and dangerous. France looked the complete package in their last game and probably the best team in the world right now. But that is France all over, world beaters one day, losing to Argentina at home the next. France have had a few injuries but unlike the Welsh they have superior depth.
Prediction: This game is going to be very exciting and the partsan Welsh crowd will play its part espicially under the lights in the Millenium Stadium. If France are going to lose a game in the 6 Nations this is it, their inconsistency may come back to haunt them again away from home. Wales have been a thorn in Frances side over the years and even though they aren't at peak at the moment they will still pit a huge challenge. My pick is Wales Over 16.5 points at 1.9 for 4 units on Betfair. This bet is also available on Paddy Power at 1.83 but the over is only 15.5 points. Wales have only not scored 16.5 points in 3 games in the 6 Nations in the last 2.5 years, in those games they didn't the scored 15 and 16 twice. France are well capable of shipping some points espicially away from home as their form down the years shows.
France - well what can we say, France in there last match were ruthless, mean and dangerous. France looked the complete package in their last game and probably the best team in the world right now. But that is France all over, world beaters one day, losing to Argentina at home the next. France have had a few injuries but unlike the Welsh they have superior depth.
Prediction: This game is going to be very exciting and the partsan Welsh crowd will play its part espicially under the lights in the Millenium Stadium. If France are going to lose a game in the 6 Nations this is it, their inconsistency may come back to haunt them again away from home. Wales have been a thorn in Frances side over the years and even though they aren't at peak at the moment they will still pit a huge challenge. My pick is Wales Over 16.5 points at 1.9 for 4 units on Betfair. This bet is also available on Paddy Power at 1.83 but the over is only 15.5 points. Wales have only not scored 16.5 points in 3 games in the 6 Nations in the last 2.5 years, in those games they didn't the scored 15 and 16 twice. France are well capable of shipping some points espicially away from home as their form down the years shows.
Friday, February 5, 2010
Official Pick - 6th/7th February
I've only got one main pick this weekend and it's the one I have liked all week.
Scotland v France - France (-6.5) @ 1.91 at Ladbrokes.
My reasons for this pick:
1. If Scotland want to do well in this game they will have to keep in tight and turn it into a bad game. Teams do this with forward domination, while Scotland do have a decent pack I think France have the most dominant pack in the 6 Nations this year.
2. Euan Murray won't play for Scotland because it's a Sunday.
3. France beat New Zealand away and dominated the world champions at home last year but the did get a mauling by New Zealand in the last game of the Autumn Internationals.
4. Scotland are getting a lot of credit for beating Australia in the Autumn by 9-8 when Giteau missed a chip shot in the last minute to win for Australia. Australia aren't a huge force in world rugby at the moment so this win is not as impressive as it sounds. Scotland will aim to the same in this game but France have more flair then the Wallabies to break down the resistance.
5. Half backs is probably the weakest position for the French which infers they won't use the tactic of kicking it all the time and will use the backs to unpick the Scottish defensive lock.
I think this game will start very tight and the Scottish will require some breaking down but the French flair should come through in the end. It is not inconcievable for Scotland do to a job here as France are slow starters but so are they. The bookies have priced this match as France to win 71% of the time I see it more like 85-90% of the time meaning there is some value here to be had if you agree with that probability assessment. Scotland have only beaten France once this decade so history would tend to agree with my maths (note: this doesn't infer they will win and cover the spread which is what is needed).
4 units on France to cover the -6.5 handicap at 1.91.
Scotland v France - France (-6.5) @ 1.91 at Ladbrokes.
My reasons for this pick:
1. If Scotland want to do well in this game they will have to keep in tight and turn it into a bad game. Teams do this with forward domination, while Scotland do have a decent pack I think France have the most dominant pack in the 6 Nations this year.
2. Euan Murray won't play for Scotland because it's a Sunday.
3. France beat New Zealand away and dominated the world champions at home last year but the did get a mauling by New Zealand in the last game of the Autumn Internationals.
4. Scotland are getting a lot of credit for beating Australia in the Autumn by 9-8 when Giteau missed a chip shot in the last minute to win for Australia. Australia aren't a huge force in world rugby at the moment so this win is not as impressive as it sounds. Scotland will aim to the same in this game but France have more flair then the Wallabies to break down the resistance.
5. Half backs is probably the weakest position for the French which infers they won't use the tactic of kicking it all the time and will use the backs to unpick the Scottish defensive lock.
I think this game will start very tight and the Scottish will require some breaking down but the French flair should come through in the end. It is not inconcievable for Scotland do to a job here as France are slow starters but so are they. The bookies have priced this match as France to win 71% of the time I see it more like 85-90% of the time meaning there is some value here to be had if you agree with that probability assessment. Scotland have only beaten France once this decade so history would tend to agree with my maths (note: this doesn't infer they will win and cover the spread which is what is needed).
4 units on France to cover the -6.5 handicap at 1.91.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)