This is the Amlin Challenge Cup Final and it is been played in Marseilles effectively making it a home game for Toulon who are based just down the road. The match will be played in perfect weather conditions highly suited for running rugby.
Toulon qualified for the final negotiating past a poor Scarlets team and a dogged Connacht side in Galway. Cardiff had a more impressive route blowing away Newcastle away and then travelling to Wasps in bad weather conditions and beating them by a score.
Toulon are coming off the back of a loss in the Top 14 semi final playoffs to Clermont last weekend. This will have been a huge disappointment for Toulon as their main focus was winning the French Championship this season and often put out a "weaker" team for Europe. Although, it is a indication of their vast resources that their second team has made it to the final. Again this week they have made 8 changes from the team that lost week.
Cardiff on the other hand have a huge focus on this competition are in serious form. They haven't lost away since early January. They are playing an exciting brand of rugby as well utilising their talented players all over the pitch. No Welsh team has ever won a European competition and they will be eager to change this. Cardiff's week off last week will also contribute to their physical readiness.
The spread on this game is Toulon -5 but there are just too many uncertainities to take this price I think. How will Toulon react to their loss last week? Can Cardiff outplay them away from home? For these reasons I am making an official pick on the points total going with over 40.5 points @ 1.83 - 4 units with Paddy Power. Toulon are a free scoring team while Cardiff are also more then capable of playing exciting running rugby. Toulon's defensive cohesion won't be brilliant with so many changes which could open up some running lanes for the talented Cardiff backline.
Showing posts with label 4 units. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 4 units. Show all posts
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Friday, May 7, 2010
Official Pick: Scarlets v Glasgow
When I first saw this line I was confused and I still remain confused. I was expecting the bookmakers to be taking points from Glasgow not giving them! Paddy Power has this game at +4 to Glasgow most of the other bookmakers have it at +3.
To set the scene Glasgow have qualified for the Magners League playoffs but have not yet guaranteed a home semi-final which would obviously be of substantial benefit to them. To have a shot at this they need to win with a bonus point. However, they have only managed to accomplish this feat once this season previously. The also need the Ospreys not to win with a bonus point. They play the Dragons in a Welsh derby and the Ospreys have lost both times they have played the Dragons this season. However, the Dragons are putting out a weak team. The Scarlets in contrast are playing for nothing only pride. They have no possibility of making the playoffs and there only shot of making the European Cup lies with Cardiff winning the Challenge Cup against Toulon.
Form: Scarlets have one win in the last five which came against a Connacht side focused on Europe. Although three of these games were away. Glasgow have three wins in the last five. Although the two defeats came away from home but against Munster and Leinster which are two of the hardest places to win rugby games.
The Scarlets are 4-4 at home this season in the Magners League. While Glasgow have three wins and three losses and two draws away from Firhill. Only today former Scarlets outhalf Phil Bennett said that he fears for the future of the Scarlets owing to the dip in form as they moved to their new stadium and the drop in attendence that has accompanied it.
Notable Team News: The Scarlets get a huge boost with the return of Welsh outhalf Stephen Jones. As for Glasgow the main news is that one of the Killer B's backrow John Barclay is out.
Pick: The Scarlets have only pride to play for and will seek to throw the ball around. Glasgow are the superior side and they have plenty to play for with a home semi-final on the line. I think Glasgow are the favourites for this game even though they haven't won outside Scotland since December. The official pick is Glasgow +4 @ 1.9 with Paddy Power - 4 units.
To set the scene Glasgow have qualified for the Magners League playoffs but have not yet guaranteed a home semi-final which would obviously be of substantial benefit to them. To have a shot at this they need to win with a bonus point. However, they have only managed to accomplish this feat once this season previously. The also need the Ospreys not to win with a bonus point. They play the Dragons in a Welsh derby and the Ospreys have lost both times they have played the Dragons this season. However, the Dragons are putting out a weak team. The Scarlets in contrast are playing for nothing only pride. They have no possibility of making the playoffs and there only shot of making the European Cup lies with Cardiff winning the Challenge Cup against Toulon.
Form: Scarlets have one win in the last five which came against a Connacht side focused on Europe. Although three of these games were away. Glasgow have three wins in the last five. Although the two defeats came away from home but against Munster and Leinster which are two of the hardest places to win rugby games.
The Scarlets are 4-4 at home this season in the Magners League. While Glasgow have three wins and three losses and two draws away from Firhill. Only today former Scarlets outhalf Phil Bennett said that he fears for the future of the Scarlets owing to the dip in form as they moved to their new stadium and the drop in attendence that has accompanied it.
Notable Team News: The Scarlets get a huge boost with the return of Welsh outhalf Stephen Jones. As for Glasgow the main news is that one of the Killer B's backrow John Barclay is out.
Pick: The Scarlets have only pride to play for and will seek to throw the ball around. Glasgow are the superior side and they have plenty to play for with a home semi-final on the line. I think Glasgow are the favourites for this game even though they haven't won outside Scotland since December. The official pick is Glasgow +4 @ 1.9 with Paddy Power - 4 units.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Official Pick - Wales v France
Wales - missing several players due to injury and drunk motorway buggy driving. The pack will be hit significantly. Wales just about turned around a shocking performance at home to Scotland to rob a win after the away team lost two players to the bin in the dying minutes. However, Wales proved they can score points and Shane Williams was looking back to his electric best. Gatland will be out to play rugby and use the backline with the weakened pack unable to dominate this huge French pack.
France - well what can we say, France in there last match were ruthless, mean and dangerous. France looked the complete package in their last game and probably the best team in the world right now. But that is France all over, world beaters one day, losing to Argentina at home the next. France have had a few injuries but unlike the Welsh they have superior depth.
Prediction: This game is going to be very exciting and the partsan Welsh crowd will play its part espicially under the lights in the Millenium Stadium. If France are going to lose a game in the 6 Nations this is it, their inconsistency may come back to haunt them again away from home. Wales have been a thorn in Frances side over the years and even though they aren't at peak at the moment they will still pit a huge challenge. My pick is Wales Over 16.5 points at 1.9 for 4 units on Betfair. This bet is also available on Paddy Power at 1.83 but the over is only 15.5 points. Wales have only not scored 16.5 points in 3 games in the 6 Nations in the last 2.5 years, in those games they didn't the scored 15 and 16 twice. France are well capable of shipping some points espicially away from home as their form down the years shows.
France - well what can we say, France in there last match were ruthless, mean and dangerous. France looked the complete package in their last game and probably the best team in the world right now. But that is France all over, world beaters one day, losing to Argentina at home the next. France have had a few injuries but unlike the Welsh they have superior depth.
Prediction: This game is going to be very exciting and the partsan Welsh crowd will play its part espicially under the lights in the Millenium Stadium. If France are going to lose a game in the 6 Nations this is it, their inconsistency may come back to haunt them again away from home. Wales have been a thorn in Frances side over the years and even though they aren't at peak at the moment they will still pit a huge challenge. My pick is Wales Over 16.5 points at 1.9 for 4 units on Betfair. This bet is also available on Paddy Power at 1.83 but the over is only 15.5 points. Wales have only not scored 16.5 points in 3 games in the 6 Nations in the last 2.5 years, in those games they didn't the scored 15 and 16 twice. France are well capable of shipping some points espicially away from home as their form down the years shows.
Friday, February 5, 2010
Official Pick - 6th/7th February
I've only got one main pick this weekend and it's the one I have liked all week.
Scotland v France - France (-6.5) @ 1.91 at Ladbrokes.
My reasons for this pick:
1. If Scotland want to do well in this game they will have to keep in tight and turn it into a bad game. Teams do this with forward domination, while Scotland do have a decent pack I think France have the most dominant pack in the 6 Nations this year.
2. Euan Murray won't play for Scotland because it's a Sunday.
3. France beat New Zealand away and dominated the world champions at home last year but the did get a mauling by New Zealand in the last game of the Autumn Internationals.
4. Scotland are getting a lot of credit for beating Australia in the Autumn by 9-8 when Giteau missed a chip shot in the last minute to win for Australia. Australia aren't a huge force in world rugby at the moment so this win is not as impressive as it sounds. Scotland will aim to the same in this game but France have more flair then the Wallabies to break down the resistance.
5. Half backs is probably the weakest position for the French which infers they won't use the tactic of kicking it all the time and will use the backs to unpick the Scottish defensive lock.
I think this game will start very tight and the Scottish will require some breaking down but the French flair should come through in the end. It is not inconcievable for Scotland do to a job here as France are slow starters but so are they. The bookies have priced this match as France to win 71% of the time I see it more like 85-90% of the time meaning there is some value here to be had if you agree with that probability assessment. Scotland have only beaten France once this decade so history would tend to agree with my maths (note: this doesn't infer they will win and cover the spread which is what is needed).
4 units on France to cover the -6.5 handicap at 1.91.
Scotland v France - France (-6.5) @ 1.91 at Ladbrokes.
My reasons for this pick:
1. If Scotland want to do well in this game they will have to keep in tight and turn it into a bad game. Teams do this with forward domination, while Scotland do have a decent pack I think France have the most dominant pack in the 6 Nations this year.
2. Euan Murray won't play for Scotland because it's a Sunday.
3. France beat New Zealand away and dominated the world champions at home last year but the did get a mauling by New Zealand in the last game of the Autumn Internationals.
4. Scotland are getting a lot of credit for beating Australia in the Autumn by 9-8 when Giteau missed a chip shot in the last minute to win for Australia. Australia aren't a huge force in world rugby at the moment so this win is not as impressive as it sounds. Scotland will aim to the same in this game but France have more flair then the Wallabies to break down the resistance.
5. Half backs is probably the weakest position for the French which infers they won't use the tactic of kicking it all the time and will use the backs to unpick the Scottish defensive lock.
I think this game will start very tight and the Scottish will require some breaking down but the French flair should come through in the end. It is not inconcievable for Scotland do to a job here as France are slow starters but so are they. The bookies have priced this match as France to win 71% of the time I see it more like 85-90% of the time meaning there is some value here to be had if you agree with that probability assessment. Scotland have only beaten France once this decade so history would tend to agree with my maths (note: this doesn't infer they will win and cover the spread which is what is needed).
4 units on France to cover the -6.5 handicap at 1.91.
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