Official Pick - 6th/7th February

I've only got one main pick this weekend and it's the one I have liked all week.

Scotland v France - France (-6.5) @ 1.91 at Ladbrokes.

My reasons for this pick:
1. If Scotland want to do well in this game they will have to keep in tight and turn it into a bad game. Teams do this with forward domination, while Scotland do have a decent pack I think France have the most dominant pack in the 6 Nations this year.
2. Euan Murray won't play for Scotland because it's a Sunday.
3. France beat New Zealand away and dominated the world champions at home last year but the did get a mauling by New Zealand in the last game of the Autumn Internationals.
4. Scotland are getting a lot of credit for beating Australia in the Autumn by 9-8 when Giteau missed a chip shot in the last minute to win for Australia. Australia aren't a huge force in world rugby at the moment so this win is not as impressive as it sounds. Scotland will aim to the same in this game but France have more flair then the Wallabies to break down the resistance.
5. Half backs is probably the weakest position for the French which infers they won't use the tactic of kicking it all the time and will use the backs to unpick the Scottish defensive lock.

I think this game will start very tight and the Scottish will require some breaking down but the French flair should come through in the end. It is not inconcievable for Scotland do to a job here as France are slow starters but so are they. The bookies have priced this match as France to win 71% of the time I see it more like 85-90% of the time meaning there is some value here to be had if you agree with that probability assessment. Scotland have only beaten France once this decade so history would tend to agree with my maths (note: this doesn't infer they will win and cover the spread which is what is needed).

4 units on France to cover the -6.5 handicap at 1.91.