Official Pick Weekend 13th/14th: Wales v Scotland

This is the game I have been most interested in all week.

Wales: Wales are coming off a defeat to England were they shifted 30 points despite playing reasonably well in defence. 17 of those points came from the period were Alun Wyn Jones was sin binned. Gatland basically blamed the whole loss on Jones which was probably a bit harsh but he will definetly be out to prove a point anyway. Wales still scored 17 points despite losing and looked good on the attack.

Scotland: Scotland on the other hand predictably played tight against the French but were undone by their inability to score tries and keep out the French flair. Wales are a flair team also and I expect them to have tightened their defence up after leaking points against the Oul Enemy. Euan Murray comes back for the Scots while Nathan Hines is out, their Lions and Leinster 2nd row will be a huge loss. Scotland are always better at home then they are away and have only won 3 of their last 25 6 Nations matches on the road.

Prediction: The bookmakers have this game priced at Wales (-10) for the 80 minute game which I feel is about right considering a lot of the previous games involving these two countries have finished with a 8-15 point margin. If I was pushed on this I would be taking Wales on the handicap. However, I feel the action offered on Wales (-5) in the 2nd half is the play @ 1.9 with Ladbrokes is the most enticing offer. This means that the game is effectively 0-0 at the start of the second half. Wales are the classic second half team throughout their 6 Nations historical results, tight going into the break and then they let loose after wearing down the opposition. This game seems like it has that written all over it. Scotland are going to try to play percentage, kicking rugby and pin back the Welsh, they have even admitted so in the media. This tactic involves a lot of defending and it can work for a while until the defence tires in the 2nd half and then expect the lethal Welsh backline to let lose and win the game in the 2nd half. Remember as well if Wales start to score tries which is what they love to do, Scotland will have to abandon their Chris Paterson led penalty kicking tactic resulting in them having to go for tries and failing to see the scoreboard tick over as efficiently.

Pick: Wales (-5) in the 2nd half @ 1.9 with Ladbrokes - 4 units.