When I first saw this line I was confused and I still remain confused. I was expecting the bookmakers to be taking points from Glasgow not giving them! Paddy Power has this game at +4 to Glasgow most of the other bookmakers have it at +3.
To set the scene Glasgow have qualified for the Magners League playoffs but have not yet guaranteed a home semi-final which would obviously be of substantial benefit to them. To have a shot at this they need to win with a bonus point. However, they have only managed to accomplish this feat once this season previously. The also need the Ospreys not to win with a bonus point. They play the Dragons in a Welsh derby and the Ospreys have lost both times they have played the Dragons this season. However, the Dragons are putting out a weak team. The Scarlets in contrast are playing for nothing only pride. They have no possibility of making the playoffs and there only shot of making the European Cup lies with Cardiff winning the Challenge Cup against Toulon.
Form: Scarlets have one win in the last five which came against a Connacht side focused on Europe. Although three of these games were away. Glasgow have three wins in the last five. Although the two defeats came away from home but against Munster and Leinster which are two of the hardest places to win rugby games.
The Scarlets are 4-4 at home this season in the Magners League. While Glasgow have three wins and three losses and two draws away from Firhill. Only today former Scarlets outhalf Phil Bennett said that he fears for the future of the Scarlets owing to the dip in form as they moved to their new stadium and the drop in attendence that has accompanied it.
Notable Team News: The Scarlets get a huge boost with the return of Welsh outhalf Stephen Jones. As for Glasgow the main news is that one of the Killer B's backrow John Barclay is out.
Pick: The Scarlets have only pride to play for and will seek to throw the ball around. Glasgow are the superior side and they have plenty to play for with a home semi-final on the line. I think Glasgow are the favourites for this game even though they haven't won outside Scotland since December. The official pick is Glasgow +4 @ 1.9 with Paddy Power - 4 units.
Showing posts with label form. Show all posts
Showing posts with label form. Show all posts
Friday, May 7, 2010
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Official Pick - Toulouse v Leinster
"Oh, and be careful. Remember you're gonna to be in deep south."
A line from the film Football Factory designed to intimidate the Chelsea hooligans when they are heading down to South London to kick off with the Millwall casuals. There something inherently scary and unknown about the deep south. Whether it be London, USA or the Amazon Jungle in South America its all about going into a place you aren't comfortable or welcome and coming out with something you need.
In rugby terms heading to the Deep South of France is about as intimidating as it gets. Rugby is the more then a hobby here it is an obession. And Leinster have the task of facing France's greatest European side Stade Toulousain. They have the pedigree and the hunger to win and they will be out to make the final in Paris.
Leinster are defending champions are out to defend their crown in Michael Cheika's last season before he departs to coach Stade Francais next season. Leinster's recent form has been poor. The loss last week against Glasgow can be discounted as a full 15 players were rested. Before that there was a defeat to Connacht away. A very lucky win against the Ospreys and Clermont in the previous round preceeded these matches. However, Leinster still have quality all over the park but they have suffered a huge loss since Johnny Sexton is out and Shaun Berne starts at 10. He is far from a natural outhalf and Leinster will lose points due to this and is the main reason they can't be favoured in this match.
Toulouse are littered with French international talent. Clerc, Fritz, Jauzion, Haymens, Skrela, Dusautoir and Servant to mention but a few. Kiwi scrum half Byron Kelleher is also a tallismanic figure for the French at scrum half. The French have lost 11 games (1 in Europe) so far this season in the rough and tumble French Top 14. However, they have made the playoffs already. They value Europe more then any other French team. Irish teams internationally in France have a terrible record. Irish clubs have a better record away and indeed Leinster toppled Toulouse in this competition 4 years ago in a remarkable 41-35 win.
If Leinster are to win this game it will require something unbelievably special. They are going to the Lions den without an influential outhalf and with their form very much in question. They could win this game however they will need to score early and often for it to happen. I forsee David Skrela keeping the scoreboard ticking over whilest Leinster fail to do likewise, as Leinster force it in the second half they will make mistakes and leave gaps for the ruthless French backs to exploit. Official Pick - Toulouse -6 @ Paddy Power 1.9 - 2.5 units. Toulouse to tell Leinster to "jog on".
Note this line is moving further towards the Toulouse win, when it opened some books had it at -5 but now most have it at -7 so take it at -6 below that crucial 7 point number. Although if you fancy -7 Boylesports are offering it at even money.
A line from the film Football Factory designed to intimidate the Chelsea hooligans when they are heading down to South London to kick off with the Millwall casuals. There something inherently scary and unknown about the deep south. Whether it be London, USA or the Amazon Jungle in South America its all about going into a place you aren't comfortable or welcome and coming out with something you need.
In rugby terms heading to the Deep South of France is about as intimidating as it gets. Rugby is the more then a hobby here it is an obession. And Leinster have the task of facing France's greatest European side Stade Toulousain. They have the pedigree and the hunger to win and they will be out to make the final in Paris.
Leinster are defending champions are out to defend their crown in Michael Cheika's last season before he departs to coach Stade Francais next season. Leinster's recent form has been poor. The loss last week against Glasgow can be discounted as a full 15 players were rested. Before that there was a defeat to Connacht away. A very lucky win against the Ospreys and Clermont in the previous round preceeded these matches. However, Leinster still have quality all over the park but they have suffered a huge loss since Johnny Sexton is out and Shaun Berne starts at 10. He is far from a natural outhalf and Leinster will lose points due to this and is the main reason they can't be favoured in this match.
Toulouse are littered with French international talent. Clerc, Fritz, Jauzion, Haymens, Skrela, Dusautoir and Servant to mention but a few. Kiwi scrum half Byron Kelleher is also a tallismanic figure for the French at scrum half. The French have lost 11 games (1 in Europe) so far this season in the rough and tumble French Top 14. However, they have made the playoffs already. They value Europe more then any other French team. Irish teams internationally in France have a terrible record. Irish clubs have a better record away and indeed Leinster toppled Toulouse in this competition 4 years ago in a remarkable 41-35 win.
If Leinster are to win this game it will require something unbelievably special. They are going to the Lions den without an influential outhalf and with their form very much in question. They could win this game however they will need to score early and often for it to happen. I forsee David Skrela keeping the scoreboard ticking over whilest Leinster fail to do likewise, as Leinster force it in the second half they will make mistakes and leave gaps for the ruthless French backs to exploit. Official Pick - Toulouse -6 @ Paddy Power 1.9 - 2.5 units. Toulouse to tell Leinster to "jog on".
Note this line is moving further towards the Toulouse win, when it opened some books had it at -5 but now most have it at -7 so take it at -6 below that crucial 7 point number. Although if you fancy -7 Boylesports are offering it at even money.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)