"Oh, and be careful. Remember you're gonna to be in deep south."
A line from the film Football Factory designed to intimidate the Chelsea hooligans when they are heading down to South London to kick off with the Millwall casuals. There something inherently scary and unknown about the deep south. Whether it be London, USA or the Amazon Jungle in South America its all about going into a place you aren't comfortable or welcome and coming out with something you need.
In rugby terms heading to the Deep South of France is about as intimidating as it gets. Rugby is the more then a hobby here it is an obession. And Leinster have the task of facing France's greatest European side Stade Toulousain. They have the pedigree and the hunger to win and they will be out to make the final in Paris.
Leinster are defending champions are out to defend their crown in Michael Cheika's last season before he departs to coach Stade Francais next season. Leinster's recent form has been poor. The loss last week against Glasgow can be discounted as a full 15 players were rested. Before that there was a defeat to Connacht away. A very lucky win against the Ospreys and Clermont in the previous round preceeded these matches. However, Leinster still have quality all over the park but they have suffered a huge loss since Johnny Sexton is out and Shaun Berne starts at 10. He is far from a natural outhalf and Leinster will lose points due to this and is the main reason they can't be favoured in this match.
Toulouse are littered with French international talent. Clerc, Fritz, Jauzion, Haymens, Skrela, Dusautoir and Servant to mention but a few. Kiwi scrum half Byron Kelleher is also a tallismanic figure for the French at scrum half. The French have lost 11 games (1 in Europe) so far this season in the rough and tumble French Top 14. However, they have made the playoffs already. They value Europe more then any other French team. Irish teams internationally in France have a terrible record. Irish clubs have a better record away and indeed Leinster toppled Toulouse in this competition 4 years ago in a remarkable 41-35 win.
If Leinster are to win this game it will require something unbelievably special. They are going to the Lions den without an influential outhalf and with their form very much in question. They could win this game however they will need to score early and often for it to happen. I forsee David Skrela keeping the scoreboard ticking over whilest Leinster fail to do likewise, as Leinster force it in the second half they will make mistakes and leave gaps for the ruthless French backs to exploit. Official Pick - Toulouse -6 @ Paddy Power 1.9 - 2.5 units. Toulouse to tell Leinster to "jog on".
Note this line is moving further towards the Toulouse win, when it opened some books had it at -5 but now most have it at -7 so take it at -6 below that crucial 7 point number. Although if you fancy -7 Boylesports are offering it at even money.
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