This is the Amlin Challenge Cup Final and it is been played in Marseilles effectively making it a home game for Toulon who are based just down the road. The match will be played in perfect weather conditions highly suited for running rugby.
Toulon qualified for the final negotiating past a poor Scarlets team and a dogged Connacht side in Galway. Cardiff had a more impressive route blowing away Newcastle away and then travelling to Wasps in bad weather conditions and beating them by a score.
Toulon are coming off the back of a loss in the Top 14 semi final playoffs to Clermont last weekend. This will have been a huge disappointment for Toulon as their main focus was winning the French Championship this season and often put out a "weaker" team for Europe. Although, it is a indication of their vast resources that their second team has made it to the final. Again this week they have made 8 changes from the team that lost week.
Cardiff on the other hand have a huge focus on this competition are in serious form. They haven't lost away since early January. They are playing an exciting brand of rugby as well utilising their talented players all over the pitch. No Welsh team has ever won a European competition and they will be eager to change this. Cardiff's week off last week will also contribute to their physical readiness.
The spread on this game is Toulon -5 but there are just too many uncertainities to take this price I think. How will Toulon react to their loss last week? Can Cardiff outplay them away from home? For these reasons I am making an official pick on the points total going with over 40.5 points @ 1.83 - 4 units with Paddy Power. Toulon are a free scoring team while Cardiff are also more then capable of playing exciting running rugby. Toulon's defensive cohesion won't be brilliant with so many changes which could open up some running lanes for the talented Cardiff backline.
Showing posts with label Paddy Power. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Paddy Power. Show all posts
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Official Pick - Toulouse v Leinster
"Oh, and be careful. Remember you're gonna to be in deep south."
A line from the film Football Factory designed to intimidate the Chelsea hooligans when they are heading down to South London to kick off with the Millwall casuals. There something inherently scary and unknown about the deep south. Whether it be London, USA or the Amazon Jungle in South America its all about going into a place you aren't comfortable or welcome and coming out with something you need.
In rugby terms heading to the Deep South of France is about as intimidating as it gets. Rugby is the more then a hobby here it is an obession. And Leinster have the task of facing France's greatest European side Stade Toulousain. They have the pedigree and the hunger to win and they will be out to make the final in Paris.
Leinster are defending champions are out to defend their crown in Michael Cheika's last season before he departs to coach Stade Francais next season. Leinster's recent form has been poor. The loss last week against Glasgow can be discounted as a full 15 players were rested. Before that there was a defeat to Connacht away. A very lucky win against the Ospreys and Clermont in the previous round preceeded these matches. However, Leinster still have quality all over the park but they have suffered a huge loss since Johnny Sexton is out and Shaun Berne starts at 10. He is far from a natural outhalf and Leinster will lose points due to this and is the main reason they can't be favoured in this match.
Toulouse are littered with French international talent. Clerc, Fritz, Jauzion, Haymens, Skrela, Dusautoir and Servant to mention but a few. Kiwi scrum half Byron Kelleher is also a tallismanic figure for the French at scrum half. The French have lost 11 games (1 in Europe) so far this season in the rough and tumble French Top 14. However, they have made the playoffs already. They value Europe more then any other French team. Irish teams internationally in France have a terrible record. Irish clubs have a better record away and indeed Leinster toppled Toulouse in this competition 4 years ago in a remarkable 41-35 win.
If Leinster are to win this game it will require something unbelievably special. They are going to the Lions den without an influential outhalf and with their form very much in question. They could win this game however they will need to score early and often for it to happen. I forsee David Skrela keeping the scoreboard ticking over whilest Leinster fail to do likewise, as Leinster force it in the second half they will make mistakes and leave gaps for the ruthless French backs to exploit. Official Pick - Toulouse -6 @ Paddy Power 1.9 - 2.5 units. Toulouse to tell Leinster to "jog on".
Note this line is moving further towards the Toulouse win, when it opened some books had it at -5 but now most have it at -7 so take it at -6 below that crucial 7 point number. Although if you fancy -7 Boylesports are offering it at even money.
A line from the film Football Factory designed to intimidate the Chelsea hooligans when they are heading down to South London to kick off with the Millwall casuals. There something inherently scary and unknown about the deep south. Whether it be London, USA or the Amazon Jungle in South America its all about going into a place you aren't comfortable or welcome and coming out with something you need.
In rugby terms heading to the Deep South of France is about as intimidating as it gets. Rugby is the more then a hobby here it is an obession. And Leinster have the task of facing France's greatest European side Stade Toulousain. They have the pedigree and the hunger to win and they will be out to make the final in Paris.
Leinster are defending champions are out to defend their crown in Michael Cheika's last season before he departs to coach Stade Francais next season. Leinster's recent form has been poor. The loss last week against Glasgow can be discounted as a full 15 players were rested. Before that there was a defeat to Connacht away. A very lucky win against the Ospreys and Clermont in the previous round preceeded these matches. However, Leinster still have quality all over the park but they have suffered a huge loss since Johnny Sexton is out and Shaun Berne starts at 10. He is far from a natural outhalf and Leinster will lose points due to this and is the main reason they can't be favoured in this match.
Toulouse are littered with French international talent. Clerc, Fritz, Jauzion, Haymens, Skrela, Dusautoir and Servant to mention but a few. Kiwi scrum half Byron Kelleher is also a tallismanic figure for the French at scrum half. The French have lost 11 games (1 in Europe) so far this season in the rough and tumble French Top 14. However, they have made the playoffs already. They value Europe more then any other French team. Irish teams internationally in France have a terrible record. Irish clubs have a better record away and indeed Leinster toppled Toulouse in this competition 4 years ago in a remarkable 41-35 win.
If Leinster are to win this game it will require something unbelievably special. They are going to the Lions den without an influential outhalf and with their form very much in question. They could win this game however they will need to score early and often for it to happen. I forsee David Skrela keeping the scoreboard ticking over whilest Leinster fail to do likewise, as Leinster force it in the second half they will make mistakes and leave gaps for the ruthless French backs to exploit. Official Pick - Toulouse -6 @ Paddy Power 1.9 - 2.5 units. Toulouse to tell Leinster to "jog on".
Note this line is moving further towards the Toulouse win, when it opened some books had it at -5 but now most have it at -7 so take it at -6 below that crucial 7 point number. Although if you fancy -7 Boylesports are offering it at even money.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Spreads from other bookmakers
Checked out the spreads on offer from 3 of the bookmakers with Irish shops last night:
They all have the England and France games at the same spreads as on Victor Chandler but there is some variation in the Irish match.
Boylesports and Ladbrokes both have Ireland at -20 while Paddy Power have Ireland at -21.
So basically if your betting on this game with Paddy Power you are paying a 2 point premium over Victor Chandler. While it may not be easy for Irish players to be on Victor Chandler if your betting on this game today get on it in Boylesports or Ladbrokes (if your taking Ireland!). Since Paddy Power would have a large market share in the recreational Irish betting market the fact that they are offering a worse spread on the match isn't surprising when many patrioic betters will take Ireland no matter what the spread is come Saturday.
They all have the England and France games at the same spreads as on Victor Chandler but there is some variation in the Irish match.
Boylesports and Ladbrokes both have Ireland at -20 while Paddy Power have Ireland at -21.
So basically if your betting on this game with Paddy Power you are paying a 2 point premium over Victor Chandler. While it may not be easy for Irish players to be on Victor Chandler if your betting on this game today get on it in Boylesports or Ladbrokes (if your taking Ireland!). Since Paddy Power would have a large market share in the recreational Irish betting market the fact that they are offering a worse spread on the match isn't surprising when many patrioic betters will take Ireland no matter what the spread is come Saturday.
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