Week 1 Pick 1

Wales v England

There are not many games in the 6 Nations that can rival this one for intensity and desire to win. Wales naturally hate the English and always up their game for their arrival in Cardiff. While England know this is the pivotal game in their campaign. Win this and they have three home matches in a row and a possible tilt at the Slam.

Wales haven't won a game in their last seven but 6 of those came against the Southern Hempishere heavyweights including three losses to the mighty Blacks. England on the other hand seem to be turning the screw and rekindling some form for the first time in years. However, the fact remains that despite beating Australia home and away this English team is largey new to international rugby.

Wales have already got a lot of injuries, the most worrying of which is the loss of two front rowers. England are without some of their big names as well, in particular Lewis Moody.

Wales haven't lost at home to England in 7 years. England won this fixture in London last year but Wales shipped most of their points against when down to 14 men. A quick scan through Wales' results in the 6 Nations will show they rarely get blown out. Wales at home, in front of a sea of angry Welsh men, at night - it will be rowdy, intense and a great game.

I'm taking Wales and the points: +4 @ 2.0 on Bet365 for 3 units. Don't bet the house on this one or any game in the opening weekend but hopefully Wales keep 15 on the pitch and lay down a marker for this tournament and the Autumn down under.

Week 3 Recap

Another 4 unit official pick comes in. This one was very tight though, I couldn't believe Wales had failed to register a single point in the first half against France. A great second half aided by the sinbinning saw Shane Williams dance through with a minute to go for Wales to cover the points line. The second half Welsh theory strikes again. The importance of sinbinning is also highlighted there as it has in every game of the 6 Nations were someone is binned. The books had the lines fairly accurate for all the games this weekend as the results show. I missed the Italy v Scotland match due to exam commitments and this is the only game I plan on missing for the whole tournament and I suppose if your going to miss one, this is the one to miss. Ireland produced an epic display to beat the England in their house. 99 tackles and only one missed, Jay-Z could write a song about this match. I got a bet in on that match as well for Ireland to cover a +2.5 spread and under 38.5 points at 3.3. That covered again by the skin of my teeth but I won't complain. It wasn't an official pick so I didn't update the website with it.

Two long weeks until the next fixtures. Why can't we have 6 Nations every weekend? I may post up a few random picks if I find some value over the next 2 weeks so stay tuned.

Stats at End of Week 3 of the 6 Nations: Official Picks: 3-0 - Profit: 10.87 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €10,870 profit. Accumulators: 0-1 - Loss: 1 unit.

Official Pick - Wales v France

Wales - missing several players due to injury and drunk motorway buggy driving. The pack will be hit significantly. Wales just about turned around a shocking performance at home to Scotland to rob a win after the away team lost two players to the bin in the dying minutes. However, Wales proved they can score points and Shane Williams was looking back to his electric best. Gatland will be out to play rugby and use the backline with the weakened pack unable to dominate this huge French pack.

France - well what can we say, France in there last match were ruthless, mean and dangerous. France looked the complete package in their last game and probably the best team in the world right now. But that is France all over, world beaters one day, losing to Argentina at home the next. France have had a few injuries but unlike the Welsh they have superior depth.

Prediction: This game is going to be very exciting and the partsan Welsh crowd will play its part espicially under the lights in the Millenium Stadium. If France are going to lose a game in the 6 Nations this is it, their inconsistency may come back to haunt them again away from home. Wales have been a thorn in Frances side over the years and even though they aren't at peak at the moment they will still pit a huge challenge. My pick is Wales Over 16.5 points at 1.9 for 4 units on Betfair. This bet is also available on Paddy Power at 1.83 but the over is only 15.5 points. Wales have only not scored 16.5 points in 3 games in the 6 Nations in the last 2.5 years, in those games they didn't the scored 15 and 16 twice. France are well capable of shipping some points espicially away from home as their form down the years shows.