Complete Blog Betting Record Update

Stats at End of the May 2010:

Official Picks: 6-1 - Profit: 17.04 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €17,040 profit or more realisticially at €20 a unit you would be up to €340.80.

All the picks so far have been rugby picks but with the World Cup coming up for June and July that is were the focus will turn. So get your bankrolls sorted for that. There is also some rugby internationals coming up and if there is value you will here about them.

Results Recap

I never posted that the last two picks were wins. As predicted Glasgow beat the Scarlets away resulting in a 3.6 unit profit win. The Toulon and Cardiff match turned into a try fest in the second half in seering heat of South France as the Blues pulled off the upset for a 3.32 unit profit win.

Official Pick: Result

Winner winner chicken dinner.

Game transpired as expected. Leinster looked fairly rudderless and tired at this stage of the season. Might be a good time to start laying points against them. Toulouse outclassed them completely in the scrum. Cian Healy won't be looking back at this game with any fond memories and it is extremely worrying for the future of the Irish front row that he got beat up so badly.

Bit annoyed I didn't go with my instinct and take the bet against Munster as well but I decided to go no-bet because they are so inconsistent of late and Munster in Europe you just expect them to pull an extra 20% out of somewhere. Like Leinster they looked tired and this season has really taken its toll.

Official Result:

Toulouse -6 @ 1.9 - 2.5 units - Profit: 2.25 units

I'll be definately be taking a strong look at this weekend's Magners League fixtures. Everything will depend on the teams that are put out there with many teams having nothing to play for. I don't expect to see the bookmakers post any lines on these games until probably the morning of the games. So stay tuned.

Official Pick - France v Italy

Before I get to the official pick a word on yesterday. Ireland v Wales - Ireland dispatched Wales without too much complication yesterday and it was brilliant to see Keith Earls add to his already impressive try scoring record. The sin binning in the first half decided this one proving that any bet can be turned on its head with one of these. Lee Byrne jumping out of play to stop himself being tackled was the biggest act of cowardice since your last local drive-by-shooting. Man up Lee Byrne. Scotland v England - had an unofficial pick on this one on England (-4). Didn't come in but as we say betting sometimes isn't a straight marginal consumption game for those you who do economics. We gain utility by making a game more interesting and having the banter with your friends by being in the same boat win or lose.

But back to the official researched picks today:

France v Italy:
France - on for the grand slam, just two games to go and it is theirs again. This is were France blow up, they are not good as favourites - I could easily point to their World Cup semi final v England when they blew the chance to go win the trophy for the first time in their back yard. Contrast this against the All Blacks in the previous round when they played brilliantly as underdogs. France are at full strength aside from the titanic Mathieu Bastareaud who sits on the bench with a knock.

Italy - will seek to front up against the French and keep this one tight throughout. Italy probably have the pack best able to compete with this remarkable French scrum in the tournament. Italy are coming off their championship saving win against Scotland and will be boyent going into this one.

Pick - France will win but the handicap of -24 or -25 depending where you can get on looks too big. Historically, Italy's average spread is +13 in the 6 Nations while France are +8. Against each other France have run out +28 spread winners but that includes the 50-8 thrasing when France had just being humilated by England. France have no incentive to run Italy's nose into the dirt here. All they need is the win, they have the points difference well in hand if disaster happens and they blow the Grand Slam next week against England. I toyed with taking them +11 on the half time handicap but I feared a quick start from the French and on the balance the handicap on the whole game seems to big. Official pick is Italy (+24) @ 1.91 with Paddy Power -3 units. Get on with Boylesports if you can because they have the spread at evens but I only put on this blog the exact bet and odds I can get. Pray for no Italians in the sin bin and this one should add to the winnings.

Week 2 Recap

So another 4 unit win (without the juice). Happy times. I was delighted to see Wales getting hammered in the first half because I knew Gatland would destroy them at half time and if any of them wanted to be able to walk down a Welsh street in the future they would have to come out and at least beat the -5 2nd half handicap. Turned out they easily did it proving the Wales as a 2nd half team theory.

As regards the other games I think my decision not to do an accumulator was justified. I had a feeling what happened in Paris would happen and I'm not prepared to bet against Ireland so decided to stay away from the accumulator. Nice day for the bookies though, Ireland didn't cover (although Paddy Power did say they took more action on France), punters lost alot on Wales failing to cover and Italy getting the cover also hurt the public as we saw that line moving aggressively for England. Wouldn't say there were too many accumulator winners this weekend either.

Stats at End of Week 2 of the 6 Nations:
Official Picks: 2-0 - Profit: 7.27 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €7,270 profit.
Accumulators: 0-1 - Loss: 1 unit

Since it's now 2 weeks till the next game I may post up a few random picks here if I find any value.

Also expect a very early line prediction soon.

Week One Recap

So a 3 unit profit on the weekend.

The one main pick came in as France covered the spread against Scotland.

Rob Kearney's lazy lazy clearance against Italy cost me a 7 unit profit on the week one accumulator as Ireland failed to cover by 3 points.

Results:
Ireland 29-11 Italy
England 30-17 Wales
Scotland 9-18 France