Italy v Ireland
Italy away - the cliche goes expect to get beaten up but win well eventually. I expect nothing different this time for Ireland. The Italians as always will be extremely powerful and will attempt to rough the Irish up, especially up front. But I expect Ireland to come through in the end and run in a few tries.
Italy have the titanic Sergio Parrise back for this campaign and he will be a massive boost to their lineup. Ireland have a host of injuries with Jamie Heaslip, Rob Kearney and try machine Tommy Bowe all injured. However, Sean O'Brien is a great replacement at number eight while Luke Fitz and Fergus McFadden are more than adequate replacements in the 3/4 line.
Ireland have always been comprehensive winners over Italy down the years bar a few times where strong weather made a difference. Accuweather is saying no rain and only light winds for Rome on Saturday so perfect conditions for rugby. However, this is the first game of the campaign and there will be rust on both sides at the start. I also expect the Italians to really front up for the first period and the crowd to get behind them. However, Ireland should break clear in the second half.
I think Ireland -6 @ 2.0 on the second half handicap with William Hill is a real steal and I'll take 3.5 units on it. It would be more but I'm holding back a little as its the first weekend of the campaign. So lets hope the only thing epic in Blue on Saturday will be their fantastic national anthem.
Friday, February 4, 2011
Week 1 Pick 1
Wales v England
There are not many games in the 6 Nations that can rival this one for intensity and desire to win. Wales naturally hate the English and always up their game for their arrival in Cardiff. While England know this is the pivotal game in their campaign. Win this and they have three home matches in a row and a possible tilt at the Slam.
Wales haven't won a game in their last seven but 6 of those came against the Southern Hempishere heavyweights including three losses to the mighty Blacks. England on the other hand seem to be turning the screw and rekindling some form for the first time in years. However, the fact remains that despite beating Australia home and away this English team is largey new to international rugby.
Wales have already got a lot of injuries, the most worrying of which is the loss of two front rowers. England are without some of their big names as well, in particular Lewis Moody.
Wales haven't lost at home to England in 7 years. England won this fixture in London last year but Wales shipped most of their points against when down to 14 men. A quick scan through Wales' results in the 6 Nations will show they rarely get blown out. Wales at home, in front of a sea of angry Welsh men, at night - it will be rowdy, intense and a great game.
I'm taking Wales and the points: +4 @ 2.0 on Bet365 for 3 units. Don't bet the house on this one or any game in the opening weekend but hopefully Wales keep 15 on the pitch and lay down a marker for this tournament and the Autumn down under.
There are not many games in the 6 Nations that can rival this one for intensity and desire to win. Wales naturally hate the English and always up their game for their arrival in Cardiff. While England know this is the pivotal game in their campaign. Win this and they have three home matches in a row and a possible tilt at the Slam.
Wales haven't won a game in their last seven but 6 of those came against the Southern Hempishere heavyweights including three losses to the mighty Blacks. England on the other hand seem to be turning the screw and rekindling some form for the first time in years. However, the fact remains that despite beating Australia home and away this English team is largey new to international rugby.
Wales have already got a lot of injuries, the most worrying of which is the loss of two front rowers. England are without some of their big names as well, in particular Lewis Moody.
Wales haven't lost at home to England in 7 years. England won this fixture in London last year but Wales shipped most of their points against when down to 14 men. A quick scan through Wales' results in the 6 Nations will show they rarely get blown out. Wales at home, in front of a sea of angry Welsh men, at night - it will be rowdy, intense and a great game.
I'm taking Wales and the points: +4 @ 2.0 on Bet365 for 3 units. Don't bet the house on this one or any game in the opening weekend but hopefully Wales keep 15 on the pitch and lay down a marker for this tournament and the Autumn down under.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
I LOVE this time of year when the 6 NATIONS is here!
Dublin, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Paris, Rome and London. These 6 cities are where the rugby world will be focused for the next few weeks. Rugby is not traditionally a sport where lots of money is bet but I think that is changing all the time as the sport matures - remember its not a long time since it became fully professional. This blog did very well last year and I am out to do better than that this year.
I'm going to start out by listing out what I think are the key factors in betting on rugby:
1. Motivation/Team Selection - How up for it is the team to win the game and has the strongest possible team been selected? Often if you bet on Magners League, previous results can't provide a reliable guide to future outcomes because the strength of the team fielded varies so much depending on the time of the year and international commitments.
Usually in the 6 Nations every team will put out their full team every time BUT this is a World Cup year! Teams have got the Autumn in New Zealand firmly on their minds. France I would say are the most likely to engage in a bit of squad rotation. It shouldn't be a huge factor but it is something to keep in mind.
2. Momentum - Huge in rugby. Winning is a habit. And so is losing. Follow these trends!
3. Injuries - Injuries will pile up as the tournament progresses. Ireland already have a worrying amount of them.
4. Weather - The weather is massive when deciding what to bet on in rugby. Strong wind and rain can strongly effect the outcome of a rugby game and crucially the amount of points scored. Wales have an indoor stadium but both teams have to agree for the roof to be closed.
5. Previous Results - It's amazing how often the same results crop up in rugby. Home advantage is crucial.
Have I missed anything important? Leave me a comment.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Full 6 Nations Fixture List:
Date KO (GMT) Home Score Away Venue
Fri 4th Feb 11 19:45 Wales v England Millennium Stadium
Sat 5th Feb 11 14:30 Italy v Ireland Stadio Flaminio
Sat 5th Feb 11 17:00 France v Scotland Stade de France
Sat 12th Feb 11 14:30 England v Italy Twickenham
Sat 12th Feb 11 17:00 Scotland v Wales Murrayfield
Sun 13th Feb 11 15:00 Ireland v France Aviva Stadium
Sat 26th Feb 11 14:30 Italy v Wales Stadio Flaminio
Sat 26th Feb 11 17:00 England v France Twickenham
Sun 27th Feb 11 15:00 Scotland v Ireland Murrayfield
Sat 12th Mar 11 14:30 Italy v France Stadio Flaminio
Sat 12th Mar 11 17:00 Wales v Ireland Millennium Stadium
Sun 13th Mar 11 15:00 England v Scotland Twickenham
Sat 19th Mar 11 14:30 Scotland v Italy Murrayfield
Sat 19th Mar 11 17:00 Ireland v England Aviva Stadium
Sat 19th Mar 11 19:45 France v Wales Stade de France
As you can see every game is a big game and there is no easy wins.
------------------------------------------------------------
Betting:
Key here is to make sure you have the opportunity to use every betting outlet possible. I'm going to be quoting the best price from a wide variety of bookmakers. Nearly all of them accept laser cards for those without credit cards. Get the best price and don't hand away value. Also if your signing up for a new bookmaker make sure you avail of whatever bonus offer they have - do a quick search to find a link to a bonus if you can't find one of their site.
I'll be using the unit system again. 1-10 unit picks. This is how you can rank the strength of my conviction on every play. Remember though there are no certainties in gambling and only bet what you can afford to lose.
Here is what I hope to do in regard to the week schedule:
Monday/Tuesday - Line Predictions, Early Spreads
Thursday/Friday/Saturday - Picks posted up
Sunday/Monday - Review of the games and betting performance
Lets make some money!
I'm going to start out by listing out what I think are the key factors in betting on rugby:
1. Motivation/Team Selection - How up for it is the team to win the game and has the strongest possible team been selected? Often if you bet on Magners League, previous results can't provide a reliable guide to future outcomes because the strength of the team fielded varies so much depending on the time of the year and international commitments.
Usually in the 6 Nations every team will put out their full team every time BUT this is a World Cup year! Teams have got the Autumn in New Zealand firmly on their minds. France I would say are the most likely to engage in a bit of squad rotation. It shouldn't be a huge factor but it is something to keep in mind.
2. Momentum - Huge in rugby. Winning is a habit. And so is losing. Follow these trends!
3. Injuries - Injuries will pile up as the tournament progresses. Ireland already have a worrying amount of them.
4. Weather - The weather is massive when deciding what to bet on in rugby. Strong wind and rain can strongly effect the outcome of a rugby game and crucially the amount of points scored. Wales have an indoor stadium but both teams have to agree for the roof to be closed.
5. Previous Results - It's amazing how often the same results crop up in rugby. Home advantage is crucial.
Have I missed anything important? Leave me a comment.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Full 6 Nations Fixture List:
Date KO (GMT) Home Score Away Venue
Fri 4th Feb 11 19:45 Wales v England Millennium Stadium
Sat 5th Feb 11 14:30 Italy v Ireland Stadio Flaminio
Sat 5th Feb 11 17:00 France v Scotland Stade de France
Sat 12th Feb 11 14:30 England v Italy Twickenham
Sat 12th Feb 11 17:00 Scotland v Wales Murrayfield
Sun 13th Feb 11 15:00 Ireland v France Aviva Stadium
Sat 26th Feb 11 14:30 Italy v Wales Stadio Flaminio
Sat 26th Feb 11 17:00 England v France Twickenham
Sun 27th Feb 11 15:00 Scotland v Ireland Murrayfield
Sat 12th Mar 11 14:30 Italy v France Stadio Flaminio
Sat 12th Mar 11 17:00 Wales v Ireland Millennium Stadium
Sun 13th Mar 11 15:00 England v Scotland Twickenham
Sat 19th Mar 11 14:30 Scotland v Italy Murrayfield
Sat 19th Mar 11 17:00 Ireland v England Aviva Stadium
Sat 19th Mar 11 19:45 France v Wales Stade de France
As you can see every game is a big game and there is no easy wins.
------------------------------------------------------------
Betting:
Key here is to make sure you have the opportunity to use every betting outlet possible. I'm going to be quoting the best price from a wide variety of bookmakers. Nearly all of them accept laser cards for those without credit cards. Get the best price and don't hand away value. Also if your signing up for a new bookmaker make sure you avail of whatever bonus offer they have - do a quick search to find a link to a bonus if you can't find one of their site.
I'll be using the unit system again. 1-10 unit picks. This is how you can rank the strength of my conviction on every play. Remember though there are no certainties in gambling and only bet what you can afford to lose.
Here is what I hope to do in regard to the week schedule:
Monday/Tuesday - Line Predictions, Early Spreads
Thursday/Friday/Saturday - Picks posted up
Sunday/Monday - Review of the games and betting performance
Lets make some money!
Monday, May 31, 2010
Complete Blog Betting Record Update
Stats at End of the May 2010:
Official Picks: 6-1 - Profit: 17.04 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €17,040 profit or more realisticially at €20 a unit you would be up to €340.80.
All the picks so far have been rugby picks but with the World Cup coming up for June and July that is were the focus will turn. So get your bankrolls sorted for that. There is also some rugby internationals coming up and if there is value you will here about them.
Official Picks: 6-1 - Profit: 17.04 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €17,040 profit or more realisticially at €20 a unit you would be up to €340.80.
All the picks so far have been rugby picks but with the World Cup coming up for June and July that is were the focus will turn. So get your bankrolls sorted for that. There is also some rugby internationals coming up and if there is value you will here about them.
Results Recap
I never posted that the last two picks were wins. As predicted Glasgow beat the Scarlets away resulting in a 3.6 unit profit win. The Toulon and Cardiff match turned into a try fest in the second half in seering heat of South France as the Blues pulled off the upset for a 3.32 unit profit win.
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Official Pick: Toulon v Cardiff Blues
This is the Amlin Challenge Cup Final and it is been played in Marseilles effectively making it a home game for Toulon who are based just down the road. The match will be played in perfect weather conditions highly suited for running rugby.
Toulon qualified for the final negotiating past a poor Scarlets team and a dogged Connacht side in Galway. Cardiff had a more impressive route blowing away Newcastle away and then travelling to Wasps in bad weather conditions and beating them by a score.
Toulon are coming off the back of a loss in the Top 14 semi final playoffs to Clermont last weekend. This will have been a huge disappointment for Toulon as their main focus was winning the French Championship this season and often put out a "weaker" team for Europe. Although, it is a indication of their vast resources that their second team has made it to the final. Again this week they have made 8 changes from the team that lost week.
Cardiff on the other hand have a huge focus on this competition are in serious form. They haven't lost away since early January. They are playing an exciting brand of rugby as well utilising their talented players all over the pitch. No Welsh team has ever won a European competition and they will be eager to change this. Cardiff's week off last week will also contribute to their physical readiness.
The spread on this game is Toulon -5 but there are just too many uncertainities to take this price I think. How will Toulon react to their loss last week? Can Cardiff outplay them away from home? For these reasons I am making an official pick on the points total going with over 40.5 points @ 1.83 - 4 units with Paddy Power. Toulon are a free scoring team while Cardiff are also more then capable of playing exciting running rugby. Toulon's defensive cohesion won't be brilliant with so many changes which could open up some running lanes for the talented Cardiff backline.
Toulon qualified for the final negotiating past a poor Scarlets team and a dogged Connacht side in Galway. Cardiff had a more impressive route blowing away Newcastle away and then travelling to Wasps in bad weather conditions and beating them by a score.
Toulon are coming off the back of a loss in the Top 14 semi final playoffs to Clermont last weekend. This will have been a huge disappointment for Toulon as their main focus was winning the French Championship this season and often put out a "weaker" team for Europe. Although, it is a indication of their vast resources that their second team has made it to the final. Again this week they have made 8 changes from the team that lost week.
Cardiff on the other hand have a huge focus on this competition are in serious form. They haven't lost away since early January. They are playing an exciting brand of rugby as well utilising their talented players all over the pitch. No Welsh team has ever won a European competition and they will be eager to change this. Cardiff's week off last week will also contribute to their physical readiness.
The spread on this game is Toulon -5 but there are just too many uncertainities to take this price I think. How will Toulon react to their loss last week? Can Cardiff outplay them away from home? For these reasons I am making an official pick on the points total going with over 40.5 points @ 1.83 - 4 units with Paddy Power. Toulon are a free scoring team while Cardiff are also more then capable of playing exciting running rugby. Toulon's defensive cohesion won't be brilliant with so many changes which could open up some running lanes for the talented Cardiff backline.
Friday, May 7, 2010
Official Pick: Scarlets v Glasgow
When I first saw this line I was confused and I still remain confused. I was expecting the bookmakers to be taking points from Glasgow not giving them! Paddy Power has this game at +4 to Glasgow most of the other bookmakers have it at +3.
To set the scene Glasgow have qualified for the Magners League playoffs but have not yet guaranteed a home semi-final which would obviously be of substantial benefit to them. To have a shot at this they need to win with a bonus point. However, they have only managed to accomplish this feat once this season previously. The also need the Ospreys not to win with a bonus point. They play the Dragons in a Welsh derby and the Ospreys have lost both times they have played the Dragons this season. However, the Dragons are putting out a weak team. The Scarlets in contrast are playing for nothing only pride. They have no possibility of making the playoffs and there only shot of making the European Cup lies with Cardiff winning the Challenge Cup against Toulon.
Form: Scarlets have one win in the last five which came against a Connacht side focused on Europe. Although three of these games were away. Glasgow have three wins in the last five. Although the two defeats came away from home but against Munster and Leinster which are two of the hardest places to win rugby games.
The Scarlets are 4-4 at home this season in the Magners League. While Glasgow have three wins and three losses and two draws away from Firhill. Only today former Scarlets outhalf Phil Bennett said that he fears for the future of the Scarlets owing to the dip in form as they moved to their new stadium and the drop in attendence that has accompanied it.
Notable Team News: The Scarlets get a huge boost with the return of Welsh outhalf Stephen Jones. As for Glasgow the main news is that one of the Killer B's backrow John Barclay is out.
Pick: The Scarlets have only pride to play for and will seek to throw the ball around. Glasgow are the superior side and they have plenty to play for with a home semi-final on the line. I think Glasgow are the favourites for this game even though they haven't won outside Scotland since December. The official pick is Glasgow +4 @ 1.9 with Paddy Power - 4 units.
To set the scene Glasgow have qualified for the Magners League playoffs but have not yet guaranteed a home semi-final which would obviously be of substantial benefit to them. To have a shot at this they need to win with a bonus point. However, they have only managed to accomplish this feat once this season previously. The also need the Ospreys not to win with a bonus point. They play the Dragons in a Welsh derby and the Ospreys have lost both times they have played the Dragons this season. However, the Dragons are putting out a weak team. The Scarlets in contrast are playing for nothing only pride. They have no possibility of making the playoffs and there only shot of making the European Cup lies with Cardiff winning the Challenge Cup against Toulon.
Form: Scarlets have one win in the last five which came against a Connacht side focused on Europe. Although three of these games were away. Glasgow have three wins in the last five. Although the two defeats came away from home but against Munster and Leinster which are two of the hardest places to win rugby games.
The Scarlets are 4-4 at home this season in the Magners League. While Glasgow have three wins and three losses and two draws away from Firhill. Only today former Scarlets outhalf Phil Bennett said that he fears for the future of the Scarlets owing to the dip in form as they moved to their new stadium and the drop in attendence that has accompanied it.
Notable Team News: The Scarlets get a huge boost with the return of Welsh outhalf Stephen Jones. As for Glasgow the main news is that one of the Killer B's backrow John Barclay is out.
Pick: The Scarlets have only pride to play for and will seek to throw the ball around. Glasgow are the superior side and they have plenty to play for with a home semi-final on the line. I think Glasgow are the favourites for this game even though they haven't won outside Scotland since December. The official pick is Glasgow +4 @ 1.9 with Paddy Power - 4 units.
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