After a very successful 6 Nations the time has come to move this blog forward.
Here is the official schedule for the blog to come:
May 2010:
European Rugby Cup Semi-Finals and Final.
June/July 2010:
FIFA World Cup
Late August 2010 - January 2011:
NFL and College Football
These are the items I will definitely be posting on as always there could be some ad-hoc picks in between and also additions to the official schedule above.
For the conclusion of the European Rugby season I hope to pick some winners in the remaining three matches in what is very much France v Ireland at the moment.
The World Cup is THE betting event of the year and millions will be staked over the course of this competition, this will be a marathon not a sprint but hopefully there will be gold (or something blingin') around our necks by the end.
Then comes the handicappers dream - Football Season! Covering the spread on Saturdays and Sundays is a national obession in the USA, lets bring some of that mania here but with logic at the core and no biasedness in the analysis.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Magner's League Fixtures - 26th/27th March
Magner's League Fixtures for this weekend:
Friday 26th March
Blues v Ulster - Cardiff City Stadium - BBCw - 19:05
Edinburgh v Scarlets - Murrayfield - 19:30
Munster v Warriors - Thomond Park Stadium -Setanta(I) - 20:00
Saturday 27th March
Leinster v Connacht - Royal Dublin Society - Setanta(I) - 16:30
Dragons v Ospreys - Rodney Parade - S4C - 18:30
Interestingly, the lines and odds on the Magner's League are always put up very late by the bookmakers due to the degree of uncertainty they have with these matches. Team selection is vital and previous results must be interpreted in light of the team available at the time of the match - i.e. were the internationals available or not.
Friday 26th March
Blues v Ulster - Cardiff City Stadium - BBCw - 19:05
Edinburgh v Scarlets - Murrayfield - 19:30
Munster v Warriors - Thomond Park Stadium -Setanta(I) - 20:00
Saturday 27th March
Leinster v Connacht - Royal Dublin Society - Setanta(I) - 16:30
Dragons v Ospreys - Rodney Parade - S4C - 18:30
Interestingly, the lines and odds on the Magner's League are always put up very late by the bookmakers due to the degree of uncertainty they have with these matches. Team selection is vital and previous results must be interpreted in light of the team available at the time of the match - i.e. were the internationals available or not.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Blog - Where next?
This blog will continue on.
I forsee picks on the Magner's League and other sports to come. As the soccer season comes to an end there is always some value to had and I will be looking closely at that market for any potential.
I guarantee there will be picks for the quarter finals of the Heineken Cup.
So stay tuned...
I forsee picks on the Magner's League and other sports to come. As the soccer season comes to an end there is always some value to had and I will be looking closely at that market for any potential.
I guarantee there will be picks for the quarter finals of the Heineken Cup.
So stay tuned...
6 Nations - Final Betting Stats
Stats at End of the 2010 6 Nations:
Official Picks: 3-1 - Profit: 7.87 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €7,870 profit.
Accumulators: 0-1 - Loss: 1 unit.
Official Picks: 3-1 - Profit: 7.87 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €7,870 profit.
Accumulators: 0-1 - Loss: 1 unit.
Week 5 - Recap
I had no official picks last week because my betting roll for this month is negligible after a bad Week 4, also a long month pay wise with 5 weekends and Paddy's Day between payments. My 100% guarantee to you, my readers, is that any bet posted on here I will have backed. I wouldn't recommend anything to you that I don't have money on.
Recap:
Wales v Italy - Wales ripped the Italians to shreds in Cardiff to end their 6 Nations on a high. The yellow card was again crucial which allowed the Welsh flair to overcome the Italian grit. Wales aren't a great side and this has been proven in this competition and they have a mountain of work to do before the World Cup to improve. Italy will be happy with their win against Scotland and their creditable results in other games.
Ireland v Scotland - what a let down this was for every Irish supporter. Johnny Sexton was great in the outfield but his kicking let him down big time and cost Ireland the game. You could see it in his face before he was taken off that his head was gone. Kicking is hugely mental and if your confidence is shot you can forget about it. I've no doubt he will be back and put the kicking right. Overall a good 6 Nations for him. Rob Kearney on the other hand needs to really sort his life out. One good season and now it seems he is more interested in been a celebrity than a top class rugby player. Terrible whenever he played in this competition. Speaking of which the whole celebrity culture seems to be taking over the Irish team, I'm sick of seeing them in nightclubs etc. during the biggest annual rugby competition in the world. Hit the gym, hit the training pitch, hit the film room but Keith Earls leading the Limerick parade 3 days before a shot at the Triple Crown, come on that's not right.
Well done to Scotland, they deserved the win on the day and the "Killer B's" back row is quickly becoming one of the most formidable units in world rugby. Glasgow will be a force to be reckoned with in the rest of the Magner's League. Scotland only lost by a max of 9 points in this competition to France. They easily could have won every other game they played.
France v England - France got the job done but they weren't overly impressive. But for once they didn't need to turn on the style - to quote a NASCAR driver their motto going into this one was "GIT ER DONE". England showed some potential for the first time in this one and Johnny Wilkinson's starting England job is gone. Toby Flood is the new man in possession.
Recap:
Wales v Italy - Wales ripped the Italians to shreds in Cardiff to end their 6 Nations on a high. The yellow card was again crucial which allowed the Welsh flair to overcome the Italian grit. Wales aren't a great side and this has been proven in this competition and they have a mountain of work to do before the World Cup to improve. Italy will be happy with their win against Scotland and their creditable results in other games.
Ireland v Scotland - what a let down this was for every Irish supporter. Johnny Sexton was great in the outfield but his kicking let him down big time and cost Ireland the game. You could see it in his face before he was taken off that his head was gone. Kicking is hugely mental and if your confidence is shot you can forget about it. I've no doubt he will be back and put the kicking right. Overall a good 6 Nations for him. Rob Kearney on the other hand needs to really sort his life out. One good season and now it seems he is more interested in been a celebrity than a top class rugby player. Terrible whenever he played in this competition. Speaking of which the whole celebrity culture seems to be taking over the Irish team, I'm sick of seeing them in nightclubs etc. during the biggest annual rugby competition in the world. Hit the gym, hit the training pitch, hit the film room but Keith Earls leading the Limerick parade 3 days before a shot at the Triple Crown, come on that's not right.
Well done to Scotland, they deserved the win on the day and the "Killer B's" back row is quickly becoming one of the most formidable units in world rugby. Glasgow will be a force to be reckoned with in the rest of the Magner's League. Scotland only lost by a max of 9 points in this competition to France. They easily could have won every other game they played.
France v England - France got the job done but they weren't overly impressive. But for once they didn't need to turn on the style - to quote a NASCAR driver their motto going into this one was "GIT ER DONE". England showed some potential for the first time in this one and Johnny Wilkinson's starting England job is gone. Toby Flood is the new man in possession.
Week 4 - Recap
Well Italy let down the 100% official pick record with a fairly poor display in the Stade. As I warned before the game a sin binning would ruin the pick and thats exactly what happened in the first half. Surprisingly, Italy nearly covered in the second half as the French began to relax and focus on England. In the end they won by 26 points narrowly missing the 24 point spread.
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Official Pick - France v Italy
Before I get to the official pick a word on yesterday. Ireland v Wales - Ireland dispatched Wales without too much complication yesterday and it was brilliant to see Keith Earls add to his already impressive try scoring record. The sin binning in the first half decided this one proving that any bet can be turned on its head with one of these. Lee Byrne jumping out of play to stop himself being tackled was the biggest act of cowardice since your last local drive-by-shooting. Man up Lee Byrne. Scotland v England - had an unofficial pick on this one on England (-4). Didn't come in but as we say betting sometimes isn't a straight marginal consumption game for those you who do economics. We gain utility by making a game more interesting and having the banter with your friends by being in the same boat win or lose.
But back to the official researched picks today:
France v Italy:
France - on for the grand slam, just two games to go and it is theirs again. This is were France blow up, they are not good as favourites - I could easily point to their World Cup semi final v England when they blew the chance to go win the trophy for the first time in their back yard. Contrast this against the All Blacks in the previous round when they played brilliantly as underdogs. France are at full strength aside from the titanic Mathieu Bastareaud who sits on the bench with a knock.
Italy - will seek to front up against the French and keep this one tight throughout. Italy probably have the pack best able to compete with this remarkable French scrum in the tournament. Italy are coming off their championship saving win against Scotland and will be boyent going into this one.
Pick - France will win but the handicap of -24 or -25 depending where you can get on looks too big. Historically, Italy's average spread is +13 in the 6 Nations while France are +8. Against each other France have run out +28 spread winners but that includes the 50-8 thrasing when France had just being humilated by England. France have no incentive to run Italy's nose into the dirt here. All they need is the win, they have the points difference well in hand if disaster happens and they blow the Grand Slam next week against England. I toyed with taking them +11 on the half time handicap but I feared a quick start from the French and on the balance the handicap on the whole game seems to big. Official pick is Italy (+24) @ 1.91 with Paddy Power -3 units. Get on with Boylesports if you can because they have the spread at evens but I only put on this blog the exact bet and odds I can get. Pray for no Italians in the sin bin and this one should add to the winnings.
But back to the official researched picks today:
France v Italy:
France - on for the grand slam, just two games to go and it is theirs again. This is were France blow up, they are not good as favourites - I could easily point to their World Cup semi final v England when they blew the chance to go win the trophy for the first time in their back yard. Contrast this against the All Blacks in the previous round when they played brilliantly as underdogs. France are at full strength aside from the titanic Mathieu Bastareaud who sits on the bench with a knock.
Italy - will seek to front up against the French and keep this one tight throughout. Italy probably have the pack best able to compete with this remarkable French scrum in the tournament. Italy are coming off their championship saving win against Scotland and will be boyent going into this one.
Pick - France will win but the handicap of -24 or -25 depending where you can get on looks too big. Historically, Italy's average spread is +13 in the 6 Nations while France are +8. Against each other France have run out +28 spread winners but that includes the 50-8 thrasing when France had just being humilated by England. France have no incentive to run Italy's nose into the dirt here. All they need is the win, they have the points difference well in hand if disaster happens and they blow the Grand Slam next week against England. I toyed with taking them +11 on the half time handicap but I feared a quick start from the French and on the balance the handicap on the whole game seems to big. Official pick is Italy (+24) @ 1.91 with Paddy Power -3 units. Get on with Boylesports if you can because they have the spread at evens but I only put on this blog the exact bet and odds I can get. Pray for no Italians in the sin bin and this one should add to the winnings.
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