Italy v Ireland
Italy away - the cliche goes expect to get beaten up but win well eventually. I expect nothing different this time for Ireland. The Italians as always will be extremely powerful and will attempt to rough the Irish up, especially up front. But I expect Ireland to come through in the end and run in a few tries.
Italy have the titanic Sergio Parrise back for this campaign and he will be a massive boost to their lineup. Ireland have a host of injuries with Jamie Heaslip, Rob Kearney and try machine Tommy Bowe all injured. However, Sean O'Brien is a great replacement at number eight while Luke Fitz and Fergus McFadden are more than adequate replacements in the 3/4 line.
Ireland have always been comprehensive winners over Italy down the years bar a few times where strong weather made a difference. Accuweather is saying no rain and only light winds for Rome on Saturday so perfect conditions for rugby. However, this is the first game of the campaign and there will be rust on both sides at the start. I also expect the Italians to really front up for the first period and the crowd to get behind them. However, Ireland should break clear in the second half.
I think Ireland -6 @ 2.0 on the second half handicap with William Hill is a real steal and I'll take 3.5 units on it. It would be more but I'm holding back a little as its the first weekend of the campaign. So lets hope the only thing epic in Blue on Saturday will be their fantastic national anthem.
Friday, February 4, 2011
Week 1 Pick 1
Wales v England
There are not many games in the 6 Nations that can rival this one for intensity and desire to win. Wales naturally hate the English and always up their game for their arrival in Cardiff. While England know this is the pivotal game in their campaign. Win this and they have three home matches in a row and a possible tilt at the Slam.
Wales haven't won a game in their last seven but 6 of those came against the Southern Hempishere heavyweights including three losses to the mighty Blacks. England on the other hand seem to be turning the screw and rekindling some form for the first time in years. However, the fact remains that despite beating Australia home and away this English team is largey new to international rugby.
Wales have already got a lot of injuries, the most worrying of which is the loss of two front rowers. England are without some of their big names as well, in particular Lewis Moody.
Wales haven't lost at home to England in 7 years. England won this fixture in London last year but Wales shipped most of their points against when down to 14 men. A quick scan through Wales' results in the 6 Nations will show they rarely get blown out. Wales at home, in front of a sea of angry Welsh men, at night - it will be rowdy, intense and a great game.
I'm taking Wales and the points: +4 @ 2.0 on Bet365 for 3 units. Don't bet the house on this one or any game in the opening weekend but hopefully Wales keep 15 on the pitch and lay down a marker for this tournament and the Autumn down under.
There are not many games in the 6 Nations that can rival this one for intensity and desire to win. Wales naturally hate the English and always up their game for their arrival in Cardiff. While England know this is the pivotal game in their campaign. Win this and they have three home matches in a row and a possible tilt at the Slam.
Wales haven't won a game in their last seven but 6 of those came against the Southern Hempishere heavyweights including three losses to the mighty Blacks. England on the other hand seem to be turning the screw and rekindling some form for the first time in years. However, the fact remains that despite beating Australia home and away this English team is largey new to international rugby.
Wales have already got a lot of injuries, the most worrying of which is the loss of two front rowers. England are without some of their big names as well, in particular Lewis Moody.
Wales haven't lost at home to England in 7 years. England won this fixture in London last year but Wales shipped most of their points against when down to 14 men. A quick scan through Wales' results in the 6 Nations will show they rarely get blown out. Wales at home, in front of a sea of angry Welsh men, at night - it will be rowdy, intense and a great game.
I'm taking Wales and the points: +4 @ 2.0 on Bet365 for 3 units. Don't bet the house on this one or any game in the opening weekend but hopefully Wales keep 15 on the pitch and lay down a marker for this tournament and the Autumn down under.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
I LOVE this time of year when the 6 NATIONS is here!
Dublin, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Paris, Rome and London. These 6 cities are where the rugby world will be focused for the next few weeks. Rugby is not traditionally a sport where lots of money is bet but I think that is changing all the time as the sport matures - remember its not a long time since it became fully professional. This blog did very well last year and I am out to do better than that this year.
I'm going to start out by listing out what I think are the key factors in betting on rugby:
1. Motivation/Team Selection - How up for it is the team to win the game and has the strongest possible team been selected? Often if you bet on Magners League, previous results can't provide a reliable guide to future outcomes because the strength of the team fielded varies so much depending on the time of the year and international commitments.
Usually in the 6 Nations every team will put out their full team every time BUT this is a World Cup year! Teams have got the Autumn in New Zealand firmly on their minds. France I would say are the most likely to engage in a bit of squad rotation. It shouldn't be a huge factor but it is something to keep in mind.
2. Momentum - Huge in rugby. Winning is a habit. And so is losing. Follow these trends!
3. Injuries - Injuries will pile up as the tournament progresses. Ireland already have a worrying amount of them.
4. Weather - The weather is massive when deciding what to bet on in rugby. Strong wind and rain can strongly effect the outcome of a rugby game and crucially the amount of points scored. Wales have an indoor stadium but both teams have to agree for the roof to be closed.
5. Previous Results - It's amazing how often the same results crop up in rugby. Home advantage is crucial.
Have I missed anything important? Leave me a comment.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Full 6 Nations Fixture List:
Date KO (GMT) Home Score Away Venue
Fri 4th Feb 11 19:45 Wales v England Millennium Stadium
Sat 5th Feb 11 14:30 Italy v Ireland Stadio Flaminio
Sat 5th Feb 11 17:00 France v Scotland Stade de France
Sat 12th Feb 11 14:30 England v Italy Twickenham
Sat 12th Feb 11 17:00 Scotland v Wales Murrayfield
Sun 13th Feb 11 15:00 Ireland v France Aviva Stadium
Sat 26th Feb 11 14:30 Italy v Wales Stadio Flaminio
Sat 26th Feb 11 17:00 England v France Twickenham
Sun 27th Feb 11 15:00 Scotland v Ireland Murrayfield
Sat 12th Mar 11 14:30 Italy v France Stadio Flaminio
Sat 12th Mar 11 17:00 Wales v Ireland Millennium Stadium
Sun 13th Mar 11 15:00 England v Scotland Twickenham
Sat 19th Mar 11 14:30 Scotland v Italy Murrayfield
Sat 19th Mar 11 17:00 Ireland v England Aviva Stadium
Sat 19th Mar 11 19:45 France v Wales Stade de France
As you can see every game is a big game and there is no easy wins.
------------------------------------------------------------
Betting:
Key here is to make sure you have the opportunity to use every betting outlet possible. I'm going to be quoting the best price from a wide variety of bookmakers. Nearly all of them accept laser cards for those without credit cards. Get the best price and don't hand away value. Also if your signing up for a new bookmaker make sure you avail of whatever bonus offer they have - do a quick search to find a link to a bonus if you can't find one of their site.
I'll be using the unit system again. 1-10 unit picks. This is how you can rank the strength of my conviction on every play. Remember though there are no certainties in gambling and only bet what you can afford to lose.
Here is what I hope to do in regard to the week schedule:
Monday/Tuesday - Line Predictions, Early Spreads
Thursday/Friday/Saturday - Picks posted up
Sunday/Monday - Review of the games and betting performance
Lets make some money!
I'm going to start out by listing out what I think are the key factors in betting on rugby:
1. Motivation/Team Selection - How up for it is the team to win the game and has the strongest possible team been selected? Often if you bet on Magners League, previous results can't provide a reliable guide to future outcomes because the strength of the team fielded varies so much depending on the time of the year and international commitments.
Usually in the 6 Nations every team will put out their full team every time BUT this is a World Cup year! Teams have got the Autumn in New Zealand firmly on their minds. France I would say are the most likely to engage in a bit of squad rotation. It shouldn't be a huge factor but it is something to keep in mind.
2. Momentum - Huge in rugby. Winning is a habit. And so is losing. Follow these trends!
3. Injuries - Injuries will pile up as the tournament progresses. Ireland already have a worrying amount of them.
4. Weather - The weather is massive when deciding what to bet on in rugby. Strong wind and rain can strongly effect the outcome of a rugby game and crucially the amount of points scored. Wales have an indoor stadium but both teams have to agree for the roof to be closed.
5. Previous Results - It's amazing how often the same results crop up in rugby. Home advantage is crucial.
Have I missed anything important? Leave me a comment.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Full 6 Nations Fixture List:
Date KO (GMT) Home Score Away Venue
Fri 4th Feb 11 19:45 Wales v England Millennium Stadium
Sat 5th Feb 11 14:30 Italy v Ireland Stadio Flaminio
Sat 5th Feb 11 17:00 France v Scotland Stade de France
Sat 12th Feb 11 14:30 England v Italy Twickenham
Sat 12th Feb 11 17:00 Scotland v Wales Murrayfield
Sun 13th Feb 11 15:00 Ireland v France Aviva Stadium
Sat 26th Feb 11 14:30 Italy v Wales Stadio Flaminio
Sat 26th Feb 11 17:00 England v France Twickenham
Sun 27th Feb 11 15:00 Scotland v Ireland Murrayfield
Sat 12th Mar 11 14:30 Italy v France Stadio Flaminio
Sat 12th Mar 11 17:00 Wales v Ireland Millennium Stadium
Sun 13th Mar 11 15:00 England v Scotland Twickenham
Sat 19th Mar 11 14:30 Scotland v Italy Murrayfield
Sat 19th Mar 11 17:00 Ireland v England Aviva Stadium
Sat 19th Mar 11 19:45 France v Wales Stade de France
As you can see every game is a big game and there is no easy wins.
------------------------------------------------------------
Betting:
Key here is to make sure you have the opportunity to use every betting outlet possible. I'm going to be quoting the best price from a wide variety of bookmakers. Nearly all of them accept laser cards for those without credit cards. Get the best price and don't hand away value. Also if your signing up for a new bookmaker make sure you avail of whatever bonus offer they have - do a quick search to find a link to a bonus if you can't find one of their site.
I'll be using the unit system again. 1-10 unit picks. This is how you can rank the strength of my conviction on every play. Remember though there are no certainties in gambling and only bet what you can afford to lose.
Here is what I hope to do in regard to the week schedule:
Monday/Tuesday - Line Predictions, Early Spreads
Thursday/Friday/Saturday - Picks posted up
Sunday/Monday - Review of the games and betting performance
Lets make some money!
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