Stats at End of the May 2010:
Official Picks: 6-1 - Profit: 17.04 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €17,040 profit or more realisticially at €20 a unit you would be up to €340.80.
All the picks so far have been rugby picks but with the World Cup coming up for June and July that is were the focus will turn. So get your bankrolls sorted for that. There is also some rugby internationals coming up and if there is value you will here about them.
Monday, May 31, 2010
Results Recap
I never posted that the last two picks were wins. As predicted Glasgow beat the Scarlets away resulting in a 3.6 unit profit win. The Toulon and Cardiff match turned into a try fest in the second half in seering heat of South France as the Blues pulled off the upset for a 3.32 unit profit win.
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Official Pick: Toulon v Cardiff Blues
This is the Amlin Challenge Cup Final and it is been played in Marseilles effectively making it a home game for Toulon who are based just down the road. The match will be played in perfect weather conditions highly suited for running rugby.
Toulon qualified for the final negotiating past a poor Scarlets team and a dogged Connacht side in Galway. Cardiff had a more impressive route blowing away Newcastle away and then travelling to Wasps in bad weather conditions and beating them by a score.
Toulon are coming off the back of a loss in the Top 14 semi final playoffs to Clermont last weekend. This will have been a huge disappointment for Toulon as their main focus was winning the French Championship this season and often put out a "weaker" team for Europe. Although, it is a indication of their vast resources that their second team has made it to the final. Again this week they have made 8 changes from the team that lost week.
Cardiff on the other hand have a huge focus on this competition are in serious form. They haven't lost away since early January. They are playing an exciting brand of rugby as well utilising their talented players all over the pitch. No Welsh team has ever won a European competition and they will be eager to change this. Cardiff's week off last week will also contribute to their physical readiness.
The spread on this game is Toulon -5 but there are just too many uncertainities to take this price I think. How will Toulon react to their loss last week? Can Cardiff outplay them away from home? For these reasons I am making an official pick on the points total going with over 40.5 points @ 1.83 - 4 units with Paddy Power. Toulon are a free scoring team while Cardiff are also more then capable of playing exciting running rugby. Toulon's defensive cohesion won't be brilliant with so many changes which could open up some running lanes for the talented Cardiff backline.
Toulon qualified for the final negotiating past a poor Scarlets team and a dogged Connacht side in Galway. Cardiff had a more impressive route blowing away Newcastle away and then travelling to Wasps in bad weather conditions and beating them by a score.
Toulon are coming off the back of a loss in the Top 14 semi final playoffs to Clermont last weekend. This will have been a huge disappointment for Toulon as their main focus was winning the French Championship this season and often put out a "weaker" team for Europe. Although, it is a indication of their vast resources that their second team has made it to the final. Again this week they have made 8 changes from the team that lost week.
Cardiff on the other hand have a huge focus on this competition are in serious form. They haven't lost away since early January. They are playing an exciting brand of rugby as well utilising their talented players all over the pitch. No Welsh team has ever won a European competition and they will be eager to change this. Cardiff's week off last week will also contribute to their physical readiness.
The spread on this game is Toulon -5 but there are just too many uncertainities to take this price I think. How will Toulon react to their loss last week? Can Cardiff outplay them away from home? For these reasons I am making an official pick on the points total going with over 40.5 points @ 1.83 - 4 units with Paddy Power. Toulon are a free scoring team while Cardiff are also more then capable of playing exciting running rugby. Toulon's defensive cohesion won't be brilliant with so many changes which could open up some running lanes for the talented Cardiff backline.
Friday, May 7, 2010
Official Pick: Scarlets v Glasgow
When I first saw this line I was confused and I still remain confused. I was expecting the bookmakers to be taking points from Glasgow not giving them! Paddy Power has this game at +4 to Glasgow most of the other bookmakers have it at +3.
To set the scene Glasgow have qualified for the Magners League playoffs but have not yet guaranteed a home semi-final which would obviously be of substantial benefit to them. To have a shot at this they need to win with a bonus point. However, they have only managed to accomplish this feat once this season previously. The also need the Ospreys not to win with a bonus point. They play the Dragons in a Welsh derby and the Ospreys have lost both times they have played the Dragons this season. However, the Dragons are putting out a weak team. The Scarlets in contrast are playing for nothing only pride. They have no possibility of making the playoffs and there only shot of making the European Cup lies with Cardiff winning the Challenge Cup against Toulon.
Form: Scarlets have one win in the last five which came against a Connacht side focused on Europe. Although three of these games were away. Glasgow have three wins in the last five. Although the two defeats came away from home but against Munster and Leinster which are two of the hardest places to win rugby games.
The Scarlets are 4-4 at home this season in the Magners League. While Glasgow have three wins and three losses and two draws away from Firhill. Only today former Scarlets outhalf Phil Bennett said that he fears for the future of the Scarlets owing to the dip in form as they moved to their new stadium and the drop in attendence that has accompanied it.
Notable Team News: The Scarlets get a huge boost with the return of Welsh outhalf Stephen Jones. As for Glasgow the main news is that one of the Killer B's backrow John Barclay is out.
Pick: The Scarlets have only pride to play for and will seek to throw the ball around. Glasgow are the superior side and they have plenty to play for with a home semi-final on the line. I think Glasgow are the favourites for this game even though they haven't won outside Scotland since December. The official pick is Glasgow +4 @ 1.9 with Paddy Power - 4 units.
To set the scene Glasgow have qualified for the Magners League playoffs but have not yet guaranteed a home semi-final which would obviously be of substantial benefit to them. To have a shot at this they need to win with a bonus point. However, they have only managed to accomplish this feat once this season previously. The also need the Ospreys not to win with a bonus point. They play the Dragons in a Welsh derby and the Ospreys have lost both times they have played the Dragons this season. However, the Dragons are putting out a weak team. The Scarlets in contrast are playing for nothing only pride. They have no possibility of making the playoffs and there only shot of making the European Cup lies with Cardiff winning the Challenge Cup against Toulon.
Form: Scarlets have one win in the last five which came against a Connacht side focused on Europe. Although three of these games were away. Glasgow have three wins in the last five. Although the two defeats came away from home but against Munster and Leinster which are two of the hardest places to win rugby games.
The Scarlets are 4-4 at home this season in the Magners League. While Glasgow have three wins and three losses and two draws away from Firhill. Only today former Scarlets outhalf Phil Bennett said that he fears for the future of the Scarlets owing to the dip in form as they moved to their new stadium and the drop in attendence that has accompanied it.
Notable Team News: The Scarlets get a huge boost with the return of Welsh outhalf Stephen Jones. As for Glasgow the main news is that one of the Killer B's backrow John Barclay is out.
Pick: The Scarlets have only pride to play for and will seek to throw the ball around. Glasgow are the superior side and they have plenty to play for with a home semi-final on the line. I think Glasgow are the favourites for this game even though they haven't won outside Scotland since December. The official pick is Glasgow +4 @ 1.9 with Paddy Power - 4 units.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Official Pick: Result
Winner winner chicken dinner.
Game transpired as expected. Leinster looked fairly rudderless and tired at this stage of the season. Might be a good time to start laying points against them. Toulouse outclassed them completely in the scrum. Cian Healy won't be looking back at this game with any fond memories and it is extremely worrying for the future of the Irish front row that he got beat up so badly.
Bit annoyed I didn't go with my instinct and take the bet against Munster as well but I decided to go no-bet because they are so inconsistent of late and Munster in Europe you just expect them to pull an extra 20% out of somewhere. Like Leinster they looked tired and this season has really taken its toll.
Official Result:
Toulouse -6 @ 1.9 - 2.5 units - Profit: 2.25 units
I'll be definately be taking a strong look at this weekend's Magners League fixtures. Everything will depend on the teams that are put out there with many teams having nothing to play for. I don't expect to see the bookmakers post any lines on these games until probably the morning of the games. So stay tuned.
Game transpired as expected. Leinster looked fairly rudderless and tired at this stage of the season. Might be a good time to start laying points against them. Toulouse outclassed them completely in the scrum. Cian Healy won't be looking back at this game with any fond memories and it is extremely worrying for the future of the Irish front row that he got beat up so badly.
Bit annoyed I didn't go with my instinct and take the bet against Munster as well but I decided to go no-bet because they are so inconsistent of late and Munster in Europe you just expect them to pull an extra 20% out of somewhere. Like Leinster they looked tired and this season has really taken its toll.
Official Result:
Toulouse -6 @ 1.9 - 2.5 units - Profit: 2.25 units
I'll be definately be taking a strong look at this weekend's Magners League fixtures. Everything will depend on the teams that are put out there with many teams having nothing to play for. I don't expect to see the bookmakers post any lines on these games until probably the morning of the games. So stay tuned.
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Official Pick - Toulouse v Leinster
"Oh, and be careful. Remember you're gonna to be in deep south."
A line from the film Football Factory designed to intimidate the Chelsea hooligans when they are heading down to South London to kick off with the Millwall casuals. There something inherently scary and unknown about the deep south. Whether it be London, USA or the Amazon Jungle in South America its all about going into a place you aren't comfortable or welcome and coming out with something you need.
In rugby terms heading to the Deep South of France is about as intimidating as it gets. Rugby is the more then a hobby here it is an obession. And Leinster have the task of facing France's greatest European side Stade Toulousain. They have the pedigree and the hunger to win and they will be out to make the final in Paris.
Leinster are defending champions are out to defend their crown in Michael Cheika's last season before he departs to coach Stade Francais next season. Leinster's recent form has been poor. The loss last week against Glasgow can be discounted as a full 15 players were rested. Before that there was a defeat to Connacht away. A very lucky win against the Ospreys and Clermont in the previous round preceeded these matches. However, Leinster still have quality all over the park but they have suffered a huge loss since Johnny Sexton is out and Shaun Berne starts at 10. He is far from a natural outhalf and Leinster will lose points due to this and is the main reason they can't be favoured in this match.
Toulouse are littered with French international talent. Clerc, Fritz, Jauzion, Haymens, Skrela, Dusautoir and Servant to mention but a few. Kiwi scrum half Byron Kelleher is also a tallismanic figure for the French at scrum half. The French have lost 11 games (1 in Europe) so far this season in the rough and tumble French Top 14. However, they have made the playoffs already. They value Europe more then any other French team. Irish teams internationally in France have a terrible record. Irish clubs have a better record away and indeed Leinster toppled Toulouse in this competition 4 years ago in a remarkable 41-35 win.
If Leinster are to win this game it will require something unbelievably special. They are going to the Lions den without an influential outhalf and with their form very much in question. They could win this game however they will need to score early and often for it to happen. I forsee David Skrela keeping the scoreboard ticking over whilest Leinster fail to do likewise, as Leinster force it in the second half they will make mistakes and leave gaps for the ruthless French backs to exploit. Official Pick - Toulouse -6 @ Paddy Power 1.9 - 2.5 units. Toulouse to tell Leinster to "jog on".
Note this line is moving further towards the Toulouse win, when it opened some books had it at -5 but now most have it at -7 so take it at -6 below that crucial 7 point number. Although if you fancy -7 Boylesports are offering it at even money.
A line from the film Football Factory designed to intimidate the Chelsea hooligans when they are heading down to South London to kick off with the Millwall casuals. There something inherently scary and unknown about the deep south. Whether it be London, USA or the Amazon Jungle in South America its all about going into a place you aren't comfortable or welcome and coming out with something you need.
In rugby terms heading to the Deep South of France is about as intimidating as it gets. Rugby is the more then a hobby here it is an obession. And Leinster have the task of facing France's greatest European side Stade Toulousain. They have the pedigree and the hunger to win and they will be out to make the final in Paris.
Leinster are defending champions are out to defend their crown in Michael Cheika's last season before he departs to coach Stade Francais next season. Leinster's recent form has been poor. The loss last week against Glasgow can be discounted as a full 15 players were rested. Before that there was a defeat to Connacht away. A very lucky win against the Ospreys and Clermont in the previous round preceeded these matches. However, Leinster still have quality all over the park but they have suffered a huge loss since Johnny Sexton is out and Shaun Berne starts at 10. He is far from a natural outhalf and Leinster will lose points due to this and is the main reason they can't be favoured in this match.
Toulouse are littered with French international talent. Clerc, Fritz, Jauzion, Haymens, Skrela, Dusautoir and Servant to mention but a few. Kiwi scrum half Byron Kelleher is also a tallismanic figure for the French at scrum half. The French have lost 11 games (1 in Europe) so far this season in the rough and tumble French Top 14. However, they have made the playoffs already. They value Europe more then any other French team. Irish teams internationally in France have a terrible record. Irish clubs have a better record away and indeed Leinster toppled Toulouse in this competition 4 years ago in a remarkable 41-35 win.
If Leinster are to win this game it will require something unbelievably special. They are going to the Lions den without an influential outhalf and with their form very much in question. They could win this game however they will need to score early and often for it to happen. I forsee David Skrela keeping the scoreboard ticking over whilest Leinster fail to do likewise, as Leinster force it in the second half they will make mistakes and leave gaps for the ruthless French backs to exploit. Official Pick - Toulouse -6 @ Paddy Power 1.9 - 2.5 units. Toulouse to tell Leinster to "jog on".
Note this line is moving further towards the Toulouse win, when it opened some books had it at -5 but now most have it at -7 so take it at -6 below that crucial 7 point number. Although if you fancy -7 Boylesports are offering it at even money.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
The Path to Riches - Official Schedule
After a very successful 6 Nations the time has come to move this blog forward.
Here is the official schedule for the blog to come:
May 2010:
European Rugby Cup Semi-Finals and Final.
June/July 2010:
FIFA World Cup
Late August 2010 - January 2011:
NFL and College Football
These are the items I will definitely be posting on as always there could be some ad-hoc picks in between and also additions to the official schedule above.
For the conclusion of the European Rugby season I hope to pick some winners in the remaining three matches in what is very much France v Ireland at the moment.
The World Cup is THE betting event of the year and millions will be staked over the course of this competition, this will be a marathon not a sprint but hopefully there will be gold (or something blingin') around our necks by the end.
Then comes the handicappers dream - Football Season! Covering the spread on Saturdays and Sundays is a national obession in the USA, lets bring some of that mania here but with logic at the core and no biasedness in the analysis.
Here is the official schedule for the blog to come:
May 2010:
European Rugby Cup Semi-Finals and Final.
June/July 2010:
FIFA World Cup
Late August 2010 - January 2011:
NFL and College Football
These are the items I will definitely be posting on as always there could be some ad-hoc picks in between and also additions to the official schedule above.
For the conclusion of the European Rugby season I hope to pick some winners in the remaining three matches in what is very much France v Ireland at the moment.
The World Cup is THE betting event of the year and millions will be staked over the course of this competition, this will be a marathon not a sprint but hopefully there will be gold (or something blingin') around our necks by the end.
Then comes the handicappers dream - Football Season! Covering the spread on Saturdays and Sundays is a national obession in the USA, lets bring some of that mania here but with logic at the core and no biasedness in the analysis.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Magner's League Fixtures - 26th/27th March
Magner's League Fixtures for this weekend:
Friday 26th March
Blues v Ulster - Cardiff City Stadium - BBCw - 19:05
Edinburgh v Scarlets - Murrayfield - 19:30
Munster v Warriors - Thomond Park Stadium -Setanta(I) - 20:00
Saturday 27th March
Leinster v Connacht - Royal Dublin Society - Setanta(I) - 16:30
Dragons v Ospreys - Rodney Parade - S4C - 18:30
Interestingly, the lines and odds on the Magner's League are always put up very late by the bookmakers due to the degree of uncertainty they have with these matches. Team selection is vital and previous results must be interpreted in light of the team available at the time of the match - i.e. were the internationals available or not.
Friday 26th March
Blues v Ulster - Cardiff City Stadium - BBCw - 19:05
Edinburgh v Scarlets - Murrayfield - 19:30
Munster v Warriors - Thomond Park Stadium -Setanta(I) - 20:00
Saturday 27th March
Leinster v Connacht - Royal Dublin Society - Setanta(I) - 16:30
Dragons v Ospreys - Rodney Parade - S4C - 18:30
Interestingly, the lines and odds on the Magner's League are always put up very late by the bookmakers due to the degree of uncertainty they have with these matches. Team selection is vital and previous results must be interpreted in light of the team available at the time of the match - i.e. were the internationals available or not.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Blog - Where next?
This blog will continue on.
I forsee picks on the Magner's League and other sports to come. As the soccer season comes to an end there is always some value to had and I will be looking closely at that market for any potential.
I guarantee there will be picks for the quarter finals of the Heineken Cup.
So stay tuned...
I forsee picks on the Magner's League and other sports to come. As the soccer season comes to an end there is always some value to had and I will be looking closely at that market for any potential.
I guarantee there will be picks for the quarter finals of the Heineken Cup.
So stay tuned...
6 Nations - Final Betting Stats
Stats at End of the 2010 6 Nations:
Official Picks: 3-1 - Profit: 7.87 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €7,870 profit.
Accumulators: 0-1 - Loss: 1 unit.
Official Picks: 3-1 - Profit: 7.87 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €7,870 profit.
Accumulators: 0-1 - Loss: 1 unit.
Week 5 - Recap
I had no official picks last week because my betting roll for this month is negligible after a bad Week 4, also a long month pay wise with 5 weekends and Paddy's Day between payments. My 100% guarantee to you, my readers, is that any bet posted on here I will have backed. I wouldn't recommend anything to you that I don't have money on.
Recap:
Wales v Italy - Wales ripped the Italians to shreds in Cardiff to end their 6 Nations on a high. The yellow card was again crucial which allowed the Welsh flair to overcome the Italian grit. Wales aren't a great side and this has been proven in this competition and they have a mountain of work to do before the World Cup to improve. Italy will be happy with their win against Scotland and their creditable results in other games.
Ireland v Scotland - what a let down this was for every Irish supporter. Johnny Sexton was great in the outfield but his kicking let him down big time and cost Ireland the game. You could see it in his face before he was taken off that his head was gone. Kicking is hugely mental and if your confidence is shot you can forget about it. I've no doubt he will be back and put the kicking right. Overall a good 6 Nations for him. Rob Kearney on the other hand needs to really sort his life out. One good season and now it seems he is more interested in been a celebrity than a top class rugby player. Terrible whenever he played in this competition. Speaking of which the whole celebrity culture seems to be taking over the Irish team, I'm sick of seeing them in nightclubs etc. during the biggest annual rugby competition in the world. Hit the gym, hit the training pitch, hit the film room but Keith Earls leading the Limerick parade 3 days before a shot at the Triple Crown, come on that's not right.
Well done to Scotland, they deserved the win on the day and the "Killer B's" back row is quickly becoming one of the most formidable units in world rugby. Glasgow will be a force to be reckoned with in the rest of the Magner's League. Scotland only lost by a max of 9 points in this competition to France. They easily could have won every other game they played.
France v England - France got the job done but they weren't overly impressive. But for once they didn't need to turn on the style - to quote a NASCAR driver their motto going into this one was "GIT ER DONE". England showed some potential for the first time in this one and Johnny Wilkinson's starting England job is gone. Toby Flood is the new man in possession.
Recap:
Wales v Italy - Wales ripped the Italians to shreds in Cardiff to end their 6 Nations on a high. The yellow card was again crucial which allowed the Welsh flair to overcome the Italian grit. Wales aren't a great side and this has been proven in this competition and they have a mountain of work to do before the World Cup to improve. Italy will be happy with their win against Scotland and their creditable results in other games.
Ireland v Scotland - what a let down this was for every Irish supporter. Johnny Sexton was great in the outfield but his kicking let him down big time and cost Ireland the game. You could see it in his face before he was taken off that his head was gone. Kicking is hugely mental and if your confidence is shot you can forget about it. I've no doubt he will be back and put the kicking right. Overall a good 6 Nations for him. Rob Kearney on the other hand needs to really sort his life out. One good season and now it seems he is more interested in been a celebrity than a top class rugby player. Terrible whenever he played in this competition. Speaking of which the whole celebrity culture seems to be taking over the Irish team, I'm sick of seeing them in nightclubs etc. during the biggest annual rugby competition in the world. Hit the gym, hit the training pitch, hit the film room but Keith Earls leading the Limerick parade 3 days before a shot at the Triple Crown, come on that's not right.
Well done to Scotland, they deserved the win on the day and the "Killer B's" back row is quickly becoming one of the most formidable units in world rugby. Glasgow will be a force to be reckoned with in the rest of the Magner's League. Scotland only lost by a max of 9 points in this competition to France. They easily could have won every other game they played.
France v England - France got the job done but they weren't overly impressive. But for once they didn't need to turn on the style - to quote a NASCAR driver their motto going into this one was "GIT ER DONE". England showed some potential for the first time in this one and Johnny Wilkinson's starting England job is gone. Toby Flood is the new man in possession.
Week 4 - Recap
Well Italy let down the 100% official pick record with a fairly poor display in the Stade. As I warned before the game a sin binning would ruin the pick and thats exactly what happened in the first half. Surprisingly, Italy nearly covered in the second half as the French began to relax and focus on England. In the end they won by 26 points narrowly missing the 24 point spread.
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Official Pick - France v Italy
Before I get to the official pick a word on yesterday. Ireland v Wales - Ireland dispatched Wales without too much complication yesterday and it was brilliant to see Keith Earls add to his already impressive try scoring record. The sin binning in the first half decided this one proving that any bet can be turned on its head with one of these. Lee Byrne jumping out of play to stop himself being tackled was the biggest act of cowardice since your last local drive-by-shooting. Man up Lee Byrne. Scotland v England - had an unofficial pick on this one on England (-4). Didn't come in but as we say betting sometimes isn't a straight marginal consumption game for those you who do economics. We gain utility by making a game more interesting and having the banter with your friends by being in the same boat win or lose.
But back to the official researched picks today:
France v Italy:
France - on for the grand slam, just two games to go and it is theirs again. This is were France blow up, they are not good as favourites - I could easily point to their World Cup semi final v England when they blew the chance to go win the trophy for the first time in their back yard. Contrast this against the All Blacks in the previous round when they played brilliantly as underdogs. France are at full strength aside from the titanic Mathieu Bastareaud who sits on the bench with a knock.
Italy - will seek to front up against the French and keep this one tight throughout. Italy probably have the pack best able to compete with this remarkable French scrum in the tournament. Italy are coming off their championship saving win against Scotland and will be boyent going into this one.
Pick - France will win but the handicap of -24 or -25 depending where you can get on looks too big. Historically, Italy's average spread is +13 in the 6 Nations while France are +8. Against each other France have run out +28 spread winners but that includes the 50-8 thrasing when France had just being humilated by England. France have no incentive to run Italy's nose into the dirt here. All they need is the win, they have the points difference well in hand if disaster happens and they blow the Grand Slam next week against England. I toyed with taking them +11 on the half time handicap but I feared a quick start from the French and on the balance the handicap on the whole game seems to big. Official pick is Italy (+24) @ 1.91 with Paddy Power -3 units. Get on with Boylesports if you can because they have the spread at evens but I only put on this blog the exact bet and odds I can get. Pray for no Italians in the sin bin and this one should add to the winnings.
But back to the official researched picks today:
France v Italy:
France - on for the grand slam, just two games to go and it is theirs again. This is were France blow up, they are not good as favourites - I could easily point to their World Cup semi final v England when they blew the chance to go win the trophy for the first time in their back yard. Contrast this against the All Blacks in the previous round when they played brilliantly as underdogs. France are at full strength aside from the titanic Mathieu Bastareaud who sits on the bench with a knock.
Italy - will seek to front up against the French and keep this one tight throughout. Italy probably have the pack best able to compete with this remarkable French scrum in the tournament. Italy are coming off their championship saving win against Scotland and will be boyent going into this one.
Pick - France will win but the handicap of -24 or -25 depending where you can get on looks too big. Historically, Italy's average spread is +13 in the 6 Nations while France are +8. Against each other France have run out +28 spread winners but that includes the 50-8 thrasing when France had just being humilated by England. France have no incentive to run Italy's nose into the dirt here. All they need is the win, they have the points difference well in hand if disaster happens and they blow the Grand Slam next week against England. I toyed with taking them +11 on the half time handicap but I feared a quick start from the French and on the balance the handicap on the whole game seems to big. Official pick is Italy (+24) @ 1.91 with Paddy Power -3 units. Get on with Boylesports if you can because they have the spread at evens but I only put on this blog the exact bet and odds I can get. Pray for no Italians in the sin bin and this one should add to the winnings.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Week 3 Recap
Another 4 unit official pick comes in. This one was very tight though, I couldn't believe Wales had failed to register a single point in the first half against France. A great second half aided by the sinbinning saw Shane Williams dance through with a minute to go for Wales to cover the points line. The second half Welsh theory strikes again. The importance of sinbinning is also highlighted there as it has in every game of the 6 Nations were someone is binned. The books had the lines fairly accurate for all the games this weekend as the results show. I missed the Italy v Scotland match due to exam commitments and this is the only game I plan on missing for the whole tournament and I suppose if your going to miss one, this is the one to miss. Ireland produced an epic display to beat the England in their house. 99 tackles and only one missed, Jay-Z could write a song about this match. I got a bet in on that match as well for Ireland to cover a +2.5 spread and under 38.5 points at 3.3. That covered again by the skin of my teeth but I won't complain. It wasn't an official pick so I didn't update the website with it.
Two long weeks until the next fixtures. Why can't we have 6 Nations every weekend? I may post up a few random picks if I find some value over the next 2 weeks so stay tuned.
Stats at End of Week 3 of the 6 Nations: Official Picks: 3-0 - Profit: 10.87 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €10,870 profit. Accumulators: 0-1 - Loss: 1 unit.
Two long weeks until the next fixtures. Why can't we have 6 Nations every weekend? I may post up a few random picks if I find some value over the next 2 weeks so stay tuned.
Stats at End of Week 3 of the 6 Nations: Official Picks: 3-0 - Profit: 10.87 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €10,870 profit. Accumulators: 0-1 - Loss: 1 unit.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Official Pick - Wales v France
Wales - missing several players due to injury and drunk motorway buggy driving. The pack will be hit significantly. Wales just about turned around a shocking performance at home to Scotland to rob a win after the away team lost two players to the bin in the dying minutes. However, Wales proved they can score points and Shane Williams was looking back to his electric best. Gatland will be out to play rugby and use the backline with the weakened pack unable to dominate this huge French pack.
France - well what can we say, France in there last match were ruthless, mean and dangerous. France looked the complete package in their last game and probably the best team in the world right now. But that is France all over, world beaters one day, losing to Argentina at home the next. France have had a few injuries but unlike the Welsh they have superior depth.
Prediction: This game is going to be very exciting and the partsan Welsh crowd will play its part espicially under the lights in the Millenium Stadium. If France are going to lose a game in the 6 Nations this is it, their inconsistency may come back to haunt them again away from home. Wales have been a thorn in Frances side over the years and even though they aren't at peak at the moment they will still pit a huge challenge. My pick is Wales Over 16.5 points at 1.9 for 4 units on Betfair. This bet is also available on Paddy Power at 1.83 but the over is only 15.5 points. Wales have only not scored 16.5 points in 3 games in the 6 Nations in the last 2.5 years, in those games they didn't the scored 15 and 16 twice. France are well capable of shipping some points espicially away from home as their form down the years shows.
France - well what can we say, France in there last match were ruthless, mean and dangerous. France looked the complete package in their last game and probably the best team in the world right now. But that is France all over, world beaters one day, losing to Argentina at home the next. France have had a few injuries but unlike the Welsh they have superior depth.
Prediction: This game is going to be very exciting and the partsan Welsh crowd will play its part espicially under the lights in the Millenium Stadium. If France are going to lose a game in the 6 Nations this is it, their inconsistency may come back to haunt them again away from home. Wales have been a thorn in Frances side over the years and even though they aren't at peak at the moment they will still pit a huge challenge. My pick is Wales Over 16.5 points at 1.9 for 4 units on Betfair. This bet is also available on Paddy Power at 1.83 but the over is only 15.5 points. Wales have only not scored 16.5 points in 3 games in the 6 Nations in the last 2.5 years, in those games they didn't the scored 15 and 16 twice. France are well capable of shipping some points espicially away from home as their form down the years shows.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Week 3 Fixtures and Ultra Early Handicap Forecasts
Friday 26 February
20:00 - Wales v France - Wales (+9)
Saturday 27 February
13:30 (14:30 local) - Italy v Scotland - Italy (+3)
16:00 - England v Ireland - England (-3)
20:00 - Wales v France - Wales (+9)
Saturday 27 February
13:30 (14:30 local) - Italy v Scotland - Italy (+3)
16:00 - England v Ireland - England (-3)
Week 2 Recap
So another 4 unit win (without the juice). Happy times. I was delighted to see Wales getting hammered in the first half because I knew Gatland would destroy them at half time and if any of them wanted to be able to walk down a Welsh street in the future they would have to come out and at least beat the -5 2nd half handicap. Turned out they easily did it proving the Wales as a 2nd half team theory.
As regards the other games I think my decision not to do an accumulator was justified. I had a feeling what happened in Paris would happen and I'm not prepared to bet against Ireland so decided to stay away from the accumulator. Nice day for the bookies though, Ireland didn't cover (although Paddy Power did say they took more action on France), punters lost alot on Wales failing to cover and Italy getting the cover also hurt the public as we saw that line moving aggressively for England. Wouldn't say there were too many accumulator winners this weekend either.
Stats at End of Week 2 of the 6 Nations:
Official Picks: 2-0 - Profit: 7.27 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €7,270 profit.
Accumulators: 0-1 - Loss: 1 unit
Since it's now 2 weeks till the next game I may post up a few random picks here if I find any value.
Also expect a very early line prediction soon.
As regards the other games I think my decision not to do an accumulator was justified. I had a feeling what happened in Paris would happen and I'm not prepared to bet against Ireland so decided to stay away from the accumulator. Nice day for the bookies though, Ireland didn't cover (although Paddy Power did say they took more action on France), punters lost alot on Wales failing to cover and Italy getting the cover also hurt the public as we saw that line moving aggressively for England. Wouldn't say there were too many accumulator winners this weekend either.
Stats at End of Week 2 of the 6 Nations:
Official Picks: 2-0 - Profit: 7.27 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €7,270 profit.
Accumulators: 0-1 - Loss: 1 unit
Since it's now 2 weeks till the next game I may post up a few random picks here if I find any value.
Also expect a very early line prediction soon.
Friday, February 12, 2010
Official Pick Weekend 13th/14th: Wales v Scotland
This is the game I have been most interested in all week.
Wales: Wales are coming off a defeat to England were they shifted 30 points despite playing reasonably well in defence. 17 of those points came from the period were Alun Wyn Jones was sin binned. Gatland basically blamed the whole loss on Jones which was probably a bit harsh but he will definetly be out to prove a point anyway. Wales still scored 17 points despite losing and looked good on the attack.
Scotland: Scotland on the other hand predictably played tight against the French but were undone by their inability to score tries and keep out the French flair. Wales are a flair team also and I expect them to have tightened their defence up after leaking points against the Oul Enemy. Euan Murray comes back for the Scots while Nathan Hines is out, their Lions and Leinster 2nd row will be a huge loss. Scotland are always better at home then they are away and have only won 3 of their last 25 6 Nations matches on the road.
Prediction: The bookmakers have this game priced at Wales (-10) for the 80 minute game which I feel is about right considering a lot of the previous games involving these two countries have finished with a 8-15 point margin. If I was pushed on this I would be taking Wales on the handicap. However, I feel the action offered on Wales (-5) in the 2nd half is the play @ 1.9 with Ladbrokes is the most enticing offer. This means that the game is effectively 0-0 at the start of the second half. Wales are the classic second half team throughout their 6 Nations historical results, tight going into the break and then they let loose after wearing down the opposition. This game seems like it has that written all over it. Scotland are going to try to play percentage, kicking rugby and pin back the Welsh, they have even admitted so in the media. This tactic involves a lot of defending and it can work for a while until the defence tires in the 2nd half and then expect the lethal Welsh backline to let lose and win the game in the 2nd half. Remember as well if Wales start to score tries which is what they love to do, Scotland will have to abandon their Chris Paterson led penalty kicking tactic resulting in them having to go for tries and failing to see the scoreboard tick over as efficiently.
Pick: Wales (-5) in the 2nd half @ 1.9 with Ladbrokes - 4 units.
Wales: Wales are coming off a defeat to England were they shifted 30 points despite playing reasonably well in defence. 17 of those points came from the period were Alun Wyn Jones was sin binned. Gatland basically blamed the whole loss on Jones which was probably a bit harsh but he will definetly be out to prove a point anyway. Wales still scored 17 points despite losing and looked good on the attack.
Scotland: Scotland on the other hand predictably played tight against the French but were undone by their inability to score tries and keep out the French flair. Wales are a flair team also and I expect them to have tightened their defence up after leaking points against the Oul Enemy. Euan Murray comes back for the Scots while Nathan Hines is out, their Lions and Leinster 2nd row will be a huge loss. Scotland are always better at home then they are away and have only won 3 of their last 25 6 Nations matches on the road.
Prediction: The bookmakers have this game priced at Wales (-10) for the 80 minute game which I feel is about right considering a lot of the previous games involving these two countries have finished with a 8-15 point margin. If I was pushed on this I would be taking Wales on the handicap. However, I feel the action offered on Wales (-5) in the 2nd half is the play @ 1.9 with Ladbrokes is the most enticing offer. This means that the game is effectively 0-0 at the start of the second half. Wales are the classic second half team throughout their 6 Nations historical results, tight going into the break and then they let loose after wearing down the opposition. This game seems like it has that written all over it. Scotland are going to try to play percentage, kicking rugby and pin back the Welsh, they have even admitted so in the media. This tactic involves a lot of defending and it can work for a while until the defence tires in the 2nd half and then expect the lethal Welsh backline to let lose and win the game in the 2nd half. Remember as well if Wales start to score tries which is what they love to do, Scotland will have to abandon their Chris Paterson led penalty kicking tactic resulting in them having to go for tries and failing to see the scoreboard tick over as efficiently.
Pick: Wales (-5) in the 2nd half @ 1.9 with Ladbrokes - 4 units.
Value Hunting
I am still looking for some value in these game and if I find some I will post before kick off's tomorrow. I think the bookmakers have nailed the odds this week and value is a difficult proposition.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Line Movements
Italy v England - spread ranging from -13 (Boyles) to -15 (Paddy Power)
Wales v Scotland - lowest spread is -9 (Ladbrokes) every where else -10, Paddy Power gone out to -11 on this one
France v Ireland - ranging from -5 (Boyles and Paddy Power) to -6 (Ladbrokes)
Wales v Scotland - lowest spread is -9 (Ladbrokes) every where else -10, Paddy Power gone out to -11 on this one
France v Ireland - ranging from -5 (Boyles and Paddy Power) to -6 (Ladbrokes)
Monday, February 8, 2010
Line Movements
Boylesports have moved their lines on the Wales and Italy matches to equilibrium with the market. Best available is now Wales (-10) and Italy (+13).
Early Week 2 Handicaps
Wales v Scotland - Wales (-9) Boylesports and Bet365 - Also at -10 with some of the online firms.
France v Ireland - France (-5) Boylesports - Also at -6 with some of the online firms.
Italy v England - Italy (+12) Boylesports - Also at -13 with some of the online firms.
All at 1.90, remember Boylesports went to evens last week closer to game day so hold out for those if your making a late pick.
Thoughts: All quite close to my handicap forecasts. 9 on Wales seems a little high, although they did look like they could score some tries against England whereas Scotland look like they will rely on Chris Paterson's boot for the competition. I don't see this line moving too much before kick off, maybe some action on Scotland will bring it in a bit closer. France are getting 5 points on Ireland which is probably about right, could be some line movement if a lot of action comes in on this one. England need to score to beat 12 points to cover against Italy and that game will see the most analysis this week I think and is the one were we are likely to see the most interesting line moves.
France v Ireland - France (-5) Boylesports - Also at -6 with some of the online firms.
Italy v England - Italy (+12) Boylesports - Also at -13 with some of the online firms.
All at 1.90, remember Boylesports went to evens last week closer to game day so hold out for those if your making a late pick.
Thoughts: All quite close to my handicap forecasts. 9 on Wales seems a little high, although they did look like they could score some tries against England whereas Scotland look like they will rely on Chris Paterson's boot for the competition. I don't see this line moving too much before kick off, maybe some action on Scotland will bring it in a bit closer. France are getting 5 points on Ireland which is probably about right, could be some line movement if a lot of action comes in on this one. England need to score to beat 12 points to cover against Italy and that game will see the most analysis this week I think and is the one were we are likely to see the most interesting line moves.
Sunday, February 7, 2010
Week Two Fixtures and Handicap Forecasts
Saturday, 13 February 2010
France v Ireland, 16:30 - France (-3)
Wales v Scotland, 14:00 - Wales (-6)
Sunday, 14 February 2010
Italy v England, 14:30 - Italy (+12)
France v Ireland, 16:30 - France (-3)
Wales v Scotland, 14:00 - Wales (-6)
Sunday, 14 February 2010
Italy v England, 14:30 - Italy (+12)
Week One Recap
So a 3 unit profit on the weekend.
The one main pick came in as France covered the spread against Scotland.
Rob Kearney's lazy lazy clearance against Italy cost me a 7 unit profit on the week one accumulator as Ireland failed to cover by 3 points.
Results:
Ireland 29-11 Italy
England 30-17 Wales
Scotland 9-18 France
The one main pick came in as France covered the spread against Scotland.
Rob Kearney's lazy lazy clearance against Italy cost me a 7 unit profit on the week one accumulator as Ireland failed to cover by 3 points.
Results:
Ireland 29-11 Italy
England 30-17 Wales
Scotland 9-18 France
Friday, February 5, 2010
Week One: Accumulator
I'm going to do a weekly accumulator on each round of the 6 Nations, more fun then anything else, where I'll try to beat the spread on all 3 games. If I bet 1 unit on each of these and win only 1 over the course of the tournament I'll still be up 2 units.
Ireland (-21) v Italy - Hard one to call at that spread. Ireland will obviously win the game but at what margin of victory is the question. Down the years Ireland have struggled to run up big scores against teams. Italy will be fresh and ready to maintain pride as they always do. The last two home games in this series have seen Ireland win but by small margins although the last game in Lansdowne Road was in terrible windy conditions and the last game in Croke Park was the first game after Ireland's World Cup shambles. Ireland did run up decent scores against the Italians in Rome the last two times but the important point is that they weren't the first game of the campaign when passes go astray and moves haven't been prefected. Italy are coming off a decent Autumn when they beat Somoa and weren't humilated against some high calibre Southern Hemisphere opposition. BUT Sergio Parrise is out for them, this would be like Ireland losing Brian O'Driscoll, Paul O'Connell and 2 other starters: this man is that key to this team. All in all it just comes to down how many times Ireland can break them down and such and because I don't want to root against my boys I'm going with Ireland (-21) @ 2.00 Boylesports.
England (-4) v Wales - Very hard game to call. A lot of talk of a resurgent England and the selection does seem very positive from Martin Johnson. Of key importance is the presence of Riki Flutey who will take pressure of Johnny Wilkinson and provide a dynamic threat going forward. Wales front row has been decimated. Wales looked like a team in decline in the Autumn but how many times have we said that and then they go and win a grand slam? Wales have a terrible record in Twickenham. England and Johnson in particular need this win and I expect them to get it and such I am taking England (-4) @ 2.00 Boylesports.
Scotland (-7) v France - See the below post for my thoughts on this one. Your probably wondering why I am taking -7 here and not -6.5 that's available with Ladbrokes? That comes down to the odds offered here by Boylesports which is evens on all the handicaps and not 1.91 offered in most other places. Pick: France (-7) @ 2.00 Boylesports.
Overall Accumulator: 1 unit on Ireland (-21), England (-4) and France (-7) @ 8.00 at Boylesports.
I won't make a habit of always taking the team laying points but I feel this weekend it's what makes sense most with little recent form to help.
Ireland (-21) v Italy - Hard one to call at that spread. Ireland will obviously win the game but at what margin of victory is the question. Down the years Ireland have struggled to run up big scores against teams. Italy will be fresh and ready to maintain pride as they always do. The last two home games in this series have seen Ireland win but by small margins although the last game in Lansdowne Road was in terrible windy conditions and the last game in Croke Park was the first game after Ireland's World Cup shambles. Ireland did run up decent scores against the Italians in Rome the last two times but the important point is that they weren't the first game of the campaign when passes go astray and moves haven't been prefected. Italy are coming off a decent Autumn when they beat Somoa and weren't humilated against some high calibre Southern Hemisphere opposition. BUT Sergio Parrise is out for them, this would be like Ireland losing Brian O'Driscoll, Paul O'Connell and 2 other starters: this man is that key to this team. All in all it just comes to down how many times Ireland can break them down and such and because I don't want to root against my boys I'm going with Ireland (-21) @ 2.00 Boylesports.
England (-4) v Wales - Very hard game to call. A lot of talk of a resurgent England and the selection does seem very positive from Martin Johnson. Of key importance is the presence of Riki Flutey who will take pressure of Johnny Wilkinson and provide a dynamic threat going forward. Wales front row has been decimated. Wales looked like a team in decline in the Autumn but how many times have we said that and then they go and win a grand slam? Wales have a terrible record in Twickenham. England and Johnson in particular need this win and I expect them to get it and such I am taking England (-4) @ 2.00 Boylesports.
Scotland (-7) v France - See the below post for my thoughts on this one. Your probably wondering why I am taking -7 here and not -6.5 that's available with Ladbrokes? That comes down to the odds offered here by Boylesports which is evens on all the handicaps and not 1.91 offered in most other places. Pick: France (-7) @ 2.00 Boylesports.
Overall Accumulator: 1 unit on Ireland (-21), England (-4) and France (-7) @ 8.00 at Boylesports.
I won't make a habit of always taking the team laying points but I feel this weekend it's what makes sense most with little recent form to help.
Official Pick - 6th/7th February
I've only got one main pick this weekend and it's the one I have liked all week.
Scotland v France - France (-6.5) @ 1.91 at Ladbrokes.
My reasons for this pick:
1. If Scotland want to do well in this game they will have to keep in tight and turn it into a bad game. Teams do this with forward domination, while Scotland do have a decent pack I think France have the most dominant pack in the 6 Nations this year.
2. Euan Murray won't play for Scotland because it's a Sunday.
3. France beat New Zealand away and dominated the world champions at home last year but the did get a mauling by New Zealand in the last game of the Autumn Internationals.
4. Scotland are getting a lot of credit for beating Australia in the Autumn by 9-8 when Giteau missed a chip shot in the last minute to win for Australia. Australia aren't a huge force in world rugby at the moment so this win is not as impressive as it sounds. Scotland will aim to the same in this game but France have more flair then the Wallabies to break down the resistance.
5. Half backs is probably the weakest position for the French which infers they won't use the tactic of kicking it all the time and will use the backs to unpick the Scottish defensive lock.
I think this game will start very tight and the Scottish will require some breaking down but the French flair should come through in the end. It is not inconcievable for Scotland do to a job here as France are slow starters but so are they. The bookies have priced this match as France to win 71% of the time I see it more like 85-90% of the time meaning there is some value here to be had if you agree with that probability assessment. Scotland have only beaten France once this decade so history would tend to agree with my maths (note: this doesn't infer they will win and cover the spread which is what is needed).
4 units on France to cover the -6.5 handicap at 1.91.
Scotland v France - France (-6.5) @ 1.91 at Ladbrokes.
My reasons for this pick:
1. If Scotland want to do well in this game they will have to keep in tight and turn it into a bad game. Teams do this with forward domination, while Scotland do have a decent pack I think France have the most dominant pack in the 6 Nations this year.
2. Euan Murray won't play for Scotland because it's a Sunday.
3. France beat New Zealand away and dominated the world champions at home last year but the did get a mauling by New Zealand in the last game of the Autumn Internationals.
4. Scotland are getting a lot of credit for beating Australia in the Autumn by 9-8 when Giteau missed a chip shot in the last minute to win for Australia. Australia aren't a huge force in world rugby at the moment so this win is not as impressive as it sounds. Scotland will aim to the same in this game but France have more flair then the Wallabies to break down the resistance.
5. Half backs is probably the weakest position for the French which infers they won't use the tactic of kicking it all the time and will use the backs to unpick the Scottish defensive lock.
I think this game will start very tight and the Scottish will require some breaking down but the French flair should come through in the end. It is not inconcievable for Scotland do to a job here as France are slow starters but so are they. The bookies have priced this match as France to win 71% of the time I see it more like 85-90% of the time meaning there is some value here to be had if you agree with that probability assessment. Scotland have only beaten France once this decade so history would tend to agree with my maths (note: this doesn't infer they will win and cover the spread which is what is needed).
4 units on France to cover the -6.5 handicap at 1.91.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
England v Wales Line Movement
Matthew Rees and Gethin Jenkins out for Wales. Front row down two starters. Lines have reacted, Wales out to +4 with most books but you can still get them at +2.5 with Paddy Power. Anti English bias of the Irish betting public?
Thursday Line Moves
Ireland v Italy - All the books have moved out on the line, as I forecast. Paddy Power, Boylesports and Ladbrokes all have the game at -21 while some of the online firms have the game still at -20.
England v Wales - Most books still have this at -3 but Bet365 and Victor Chandler have moved to -4. This reflects their exposure to the English market but should also provide an indication of where the money is going in regard to future line movements.
Scotland v France - Most books holding this at -7 bar one online firm Sporting Bet which has it at -6. Ladbrokes still have the no draw handicap at -6.5 on France, while Paddy Power is going in the other direction with -7.5 on the no draw so if you like Scotland take them there.
I'm struggling to find value picks on these games at the moment and I will prob wait till tomorrow for the final picks when the weather becomes clearer but I'm expecting to only make some small plays on this weekend.
One thing this blog exercise has clearly pointed out is that I need to set up an online account with all the bookmakers to get the best value. I've put the wheels in motion on that one but it will probably take a week or two to get myself set with bank accounts etc.
England v Wales - Most books still have this at -3 but Bet365 and Victor Chandler have moved to -4. This reflects their exposure to the English market but should also provide an indication of where the money is going in regard to future line movements.
Scotland v France - Most books holding this at -7 bar one online firm Sporting Bet which has it at -6. Ladbrokes still have the no draw handicap at -6.5 on France, while Paddy Power is going in the other direction with -7.5 on the no draw so if you like Scotland take them there.
I'm struggling to find value picks on these games at the moment and I will prob wait till tomorrow for the final picks when the weather becomes clearer but I'm expecting to only make some small plays on this weekend.
One thing this blog exercise has clearly pointed out is that I need to set up an online account with all the bookmakers to get the best value. I've put the wheels in motion on that one but it will probably take a week or two to get myself set with bank accounts etc.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Ireland v Italy Line Moving
Line has moved out to -21 with Boyle Sports. As predicted the line is moving out and you would expect it to only go in one direction as the game approaches.
Scotland v France Handicap
Ladbrokes have their "no draw" handicap up and France (-6.5) is 1.91, so take that instead of -7 at the same price that way France only need 7 points to cover not 8.
Picks to come tomorrow or Friday.
Picks to come tomorrow or Friday.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Ireland Team
Ireland team to play Italy at Croke Park, Saturday 2 February (2.30pm):
15 - Rob Kearney (UCD/Leinster)14 - Tommy Bowe (Ospreys)13 - Brian O'Driscoll (UCD/Leinster) (capt)12 - Gordon D'Arcy (Lansdowne/Leinster)11 - Andrew Trimble (Ballymena/Ulster)10 - Ronan O'Gara (Cork Constitution/Munster)9 - Tomas O'Leary (Dolphin/Munster)1 - Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster)2 - Jerry Flannery (Shannon/Munster)3 - John Hayes (Bruff/Munster)4 - Donncha O'Callaghan (Cork Constitution/Munster)5 - Paul O'Connell (Young Munster/Munster)6 - Kevin McLaughlin (St. Mary's College/Leinster)7 - David Wallace (Garryowen/Munster)8 - Jamie Heaslip (Naas/Leinster)
Replacements:
16 - Rory Best (Banbridge/Ulster)17 - Tom Court (Malone/Ulster)18 - Leo Cullen (Blackrock College/Leinster)19 - Sean O'Brien (Clontarf/Leinster)20 - Eoin Reddan (Lansdowne/Leinster)21 - Paddy Wallace (Ballymena/Ulster)22 - Keith Earls (Young Munster/Munster)
Unavailable due to injury:
Jonathan Sexton (St. Mary's College/Leinster)Stephen Ferris (Dungannon/Ulster)
15 - Rob Kearney (UCD/Leinster)14 - Tommy Bowe (Ospreys)13 - Brian O'Driscoll (UCD/Leinster) (capt)12 - Gordon D'Arcy (Lansdowne/Leinster)11 - Andrew Trimble (Ballymena/Ulster)10 - Ronan O'Gara (Cork Constitution/Munster)9 - Tomas O'Leary (Dolphin/Munster)1 - Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster)2 - Jerry Flannery (Shannon/Munster)3 - John Hayes (Bruff/Munster)4 - Donncha O'Callaghan (Cork Constitution/Munster)5 - Paul O'Connell (Young Munster/Munster)6 - Kevin McLaughlin (St. Mary's College/Leinster)7 - David Wallace (Garryowen/Munster)8 - Jamie Heaslip (Naas/Leinster)
Replacements:
16 - Rory Best (Banbridge/Ulster)17 - Tom Court (Malone/Ulster)18 - Leo Cullen (Blackrock College/Leinster)19 - Sean O'Brien (Clontarf/Leinster)20 - Eoin Reddan (Lansdowne/Leinster)21 - Paddy Wallace (Ballymena/Ulster)22 - Keith Earls (Young Munster/Munster)
Unavailable due to injury:
Jonathan Sexton (St. Mary's College/Leinster)Stephen Ferris (Dungannon/Ulster)
Bet365 Scotland v France
Bet365 have the spread on the Scotland game at (+6) at 9% juice. If I had easy access to this bookmaker I would probably put a serious bet on the French at -6. Below that crucial number of 7.
Spreads from other bookmakers
Checked out the spreads on offer from 3 of the bookmakers with Irish shops last night:
They all have the England and France games at the same spreads as on Victor Chandler but there is some variation in the Irish match.
Boylesports and Ladbrokes both have Ireland at -20 while Paddy Power have Ireland at -21.
So basically if your betting on this game with Paddy Power you are paying a 2 point premium over Victor Chandler. While it may not be easy for Irish players to be on Victor Chandler if your betting on this game today get on it in Boylesports or Ladbrokes (if your taking Ireland!). Since Paddy Power would have a large market share in the recreational Irish betting market the fact that they are offering a worse spread on the match isn't surprising when many patrioic betters will take Ireland no matter what the spread is come Saturday.
They all have the England and France games at the same spreads as on Victor Chandler but there is some variation in the Irish match.
Boylesports and Ladbrokes both have Ireland at -20 while Paddy Power have Ireland at -21.
So basically if your betting on this game with Paddy Power you are paying a 2 point premium over Victor Chandler. While it may not be easy for Irish players to be on Victor Chandler if your betting on this game today get on it in Boylesports or Ladbrokes (if your taking Ireland!). Since Paddy Power would have a large market share in the recreational Irish betting market the fact that they are offering a worse spread on the match isn't surprising when many patrioic betters will take Ireland no matter what the spread is come Saturday.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Victor Chandler Spreads for the Weekend
Six Nations - England v Wales - 6/02/2010 Handicap -
England (-3)
Six Nations - Ireland v Italy - 6/02/2010 Handicap -
Ireland (-19)
Six Nations - Scotland v France - 7/02/2010 Handicap -
Scotland (+7)
All got 9% Juice (1.91 Odds)
So your probably wondering why I am using Victor Chandler odds, well thats because it's one of the few I have access to right now but you can be sure most bookmakers will have similar spreads.
My spread predicitions were reasonably close. My early thoughts on these games is that my favourite pick so far would be France to cover against Scotland. There's a good chance France could roll Scotland and I think they are getting far too much credit for beating a tired and poor Australian team in a slugfest. I'm surprised the Irish spread is so low particularly as I can see Ireland getting a lot of the public money come the weekend. Could be an early pick on this one after I see the team tomorrow. England v Wales is going to be a huge game and is going make or break one of the teams 6 nations on the first weekend. Twickenham is a hard place to go but England are not even close to the power they used to be. Could be a very small unit pick on that one.
As always, weather and team selection will be huge so no picks as yet.
England (-3)
Six Nations - Ireland v Italy - 6/02/2010 Handicap -
Ireland (-19)
Six Nations - Scotland v France - 7/02/2010 Handicap -
Scotland (+7)
All got 9% Juice (1.91 Odds)
So your probably wondering why I am using Victor Chandler odds, well thats because it's one of the few I have access to right now but you can be sure most bookmakers will have similar spreads.
My spread predicitions were reasonably close. My early thoughts on these games is that my favourite pick so far would be France to cover against Scotland. There's a good chance France could roll Scotland and I think they are getting far too much credit for beating a tired and poor Australian team in a slugfest. I'm surprised the Irish spread is so low particularly as I can see Ireland getting a lot of the public money come the weekend. Could be an early pick on this one after I see the team tomorrow. England v Wales is going to be a huge game and is going make or break one of the teams 6 nations on the first weekend. Twickenham is a hard place to go but England are not even close to the power they used to be. Could be a very small unit pick on that one.
As always, weather and team selection will be huge so no picks as yet.
Spread Predictions
Early predicitions for the opening spreads this weekend:
Ireland (-24) v Italy
England (-7) v Wales
Scotland (+10) v France
Ireland (-24) v Italy
England (-7) v Wales
Scotland (+10) v France
6 Nations Fixture List
RBS 6 Nations Championship 2010 Fixture List:
Saturday 6 February
14:30 - Ireland v Italy
17:00 - England v Wales
Sunday 7 February
15:00 - Scotland v France
Saturday 13 February
14:00 - Wales v Scotland
16:30 (17:30 local) - France v Ireland
Sunday 14 February
14.30 (15:30 local) - Italy v England
Friday 26 February
20:00 - Wales v France
Saturday 27 February
13:30 (14:30 local) - Italy v Scotland
16:00 - England v Ireland
Saturday 13 March
14:30 - Ireland v Wales
17:00 - Scotland v England
Sunday 14 March
14:30 (15.30 local) - France v Italy
Saturday 20 March
14:30 - Wales v Italy
17:00 - Ireland v Scotland
19:45 (20:45 local) - France v England
Saturday 6 February
14:30 - Ireland v Italy
17:00 - England v Wales
Sunday 7 February
15:00 - Scotland v France
Saturday 13 February
14:00 - Wales v Scotland
16:30 (17:30 local) - France v Ireland
Sunday 14 February
14.30 (15:30 local) - Italy v England
Friday 26 February
20:00 - Wales v France
Saturday 27 February
13:30 (14:30 local) - Italy v Scotland
16:00 - England v Ireland
Saturday 13 March
14:30 - Ireland v Wales
17:00 - Scotland v England
Sunday 14 March
14:30 (15.30 local) - France v Italy
Saturday 20 March
14:30 - Wales v Italy
17:00 - Ireland v Scotland
19:45 (20:45 local) - France v England
Welcome
Welcome to my betting blog. I am going to give this a go and see how I get on. Going to be some serious betting on the 6 nations over the next few weeks so I will post my picks and logic for the picks up here.
5 weeks, 15 games.
I will use a unit system to class each bet - between 1 and 10 units.
Will there be a profit at the end? Lets hope so.
5 weeks, 15 games.
I will use a unit system to class each bet - between 1 and 10 units.
Will there be a profit at the end? Lets hope so.
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