Wales - missing several players due to injury and drunk motorway buggy driving. The pack will be hit significantly. Wales just about turned around a shocking performance at home to Scotland to rob a win after the away team lost two players to the bin in the dying minutes. However, Wales proved they can score points and Shane Williams was looking back to his electric best. Gatland will be out to play rugby and use the backline with the weakened pack unable to dominate this huge French pack.
France - well what can we say, France in there last match were ruthless, mean and dangerous. France looked the complete package in their last game and probably the best team in the world right now. But that is France all over, world beaters one day, losing to Argentina at home the next. France have had a few injuries but unlike the Welsh they have superior depth.
Prediction: This game is going to be very exciting and the partsan Welsh crowd will play its part espicially under the lights in the Millenium Stadium. If France are going to lose a game in the 6 Nations this is it, their inconsistency may come back to haunt them again away from home. Wales have been a thorn in Frances side over the years and even though they aren't at peak at the moment they will still pit a huge challenge. My pick is Wales Over 16.5 points at 1.9 for 4 units on Betfair. This bet is also available on Paddy Power at 1.83 but the over is only 15.5 points. Wales have only not scored 16.5 points in 3 games in the 6 Nations in the last 2.5 years, in those games they didn't the scored 15 and 16 twice. France are well capable of shipping some points espicially away from home as their form down the years shows.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Monday, February 15, 2010
Week 3 Fixtures and Ultra Early Handicap Forecasts
Friday 26 February
20:00 - Wales v France - Wales (+9)
Saturday 27 February
13:30 (14:30 local) - Italy v Scotland - Italy (+3)
16:00 - England v Ireland - England (-3)
20:00 - Wales v France - Wales (+9)
Saturday 27 February
13:30 (14:30 local) - Italy v Scotland - Italy (+3)
16:00 - England v Ireland - England (-3)
Week 2 Recap
So another 4 unit win (without the juice). Happy times. I was delighted to see Wales getting hammered in the first half because I knew Gatland would destroy them at half time and if any of them wanted to be able to walk down a Welsh street in the future they would have to come out and at least beat the -5 2nd half handicap. Turned out they easily did it proving the Wales as a 2nd half team theory.
As regards the other games I think my decision not to do an accumulator was justified. I had a feeling what happened in Paris would happen and I'm not prepared to bet against Ireland so decided to stay away from the accumulator. Nice day for the bookies though, Ireland didn't cover (although Paddy Power did say they took more action on France), punters lost alot on Wales failing to cover and Italy getting the cover also hurt the public as we saw that line moving aggressively for England. Wouldn't say there were too many accumulator winners this weekend either.
Stats at End of Week 2 of the 6 Nations:
Official Picks: 2-0 - Profit: 7.27 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €7,270 profit.
Accumulators: 0-1 - Loss: 1 unit
Since it's now 2 weeks till the next game I may post up a few random picks here if I find any value.
Also expect a very early line prediction soon.
As regards the other games I think my decision not to do an accumulator was justified. I had a feeling what happened in Paris would happen and I'm not prepared to bet against Ireland so decided to stay away from the accumulator. Nice day for the bookies though, Ireland didn't cover (although Paddy Power did say they took more action on France), punters lost alot on Wales failing to cover and Italy getting the cover also hurt the public as we saw that line moving aggressively for England. Wouldn't say there were too many accumulator winners this weekend either.
Stats at End of Week 2 of the 6 Nations:
Official Picks: 2-0 - Profit: 7.27 units (inc. juice) - to clarify if you were betting €1,000 a unit with me you would now be up to €7,270 profit.
Accumulators: 0-1 - Loss: 1 unit
Since it's now 2 weeks till the next game I may post up a few random picks here if I find any value.
Also expect a very early line prediction soon.
Friday, February 12, 2010
Official Pick Weekend 13th/14th: Wales v Scotland
This is the game I have been most interested in all week.
Wales: Wales are coming off a defeat to England were they shifted 30 points despite playing reasonably well in defence. 17 of those points came from the period were Alun Wyn Jones was sin binned. Gatland basically blamed the whole loss on Jones which was probably a bit harsh but he will definetly be out to prove a point anyway. Wales still scored 17 points despite losing and looked good on the attack.
Scotland: Scotland on the other hand predictably played tight against the French but were undone by their inability to score tries and keep out the French flair. Wales are a flair team also and I expect them to have tightened their defence up after leaking points against the Oul Enemy. Euan Murray comes back for the Scots while Nathan Hines is out, their Lions and Leinster 2nd row will be a huge loss. Scotland are always better at home then they are away and have only won 3 of their last 25 6 Nations matches on the road.
Prediction: The bookmakers have this game priced at Wales (-10) for the 80 minute game which I feel is about right considering a lot of the previous games involving these two countries have finished with a 8-15 point margin. If I was pushed on this I would be taking Wales on the handicap. However, I feel the action offered on Wales (-5) in the 2nd half is the play @ 1.9 with Ladbrokes is the most enticing offer. This means that the game is effectively 0-0 at the start of the second half. Wales are the classic second half team throughout their 6 Nations historical results, tight going into the break and then they let loose after wearing down the opposition. This game seems like it has that written all over it. Scotland are going to try to play percentage, kicking rugby and pin back the Welsh, they have even admitted so in the media. This tactic involves a lot of defending and it can work for a while until the defence tires in the 2nd half and then expect the lethal Welsh backline to let lose and win the game in the 2nd half. Remember as well if Wales start to score tries which is what they love to do, Scotland will have to abandon their Chris Paterson led penalty kicking tactic resulting in them having to go for tries and failing to see the scoreboard tick over as efficiently.
Pick: Wales (-5) in the 2nd half @ 1.9 with Ladbrokes - 4 units.
Wales: Wales are coming off a defeat to England were they shifted 30 points despite playing reasonably well in defence. 17 of those points came from the period were Alun Wyn Jones was sin binned. Gatland basically blamed the whole loss on Jones which was probably a bit harsh but he will definetly be out to prove a point anyway. Wales still scored 17 points despite losing and looked good on the attack.
Scotland: Scotland on the other hand predictably played tight against the French but were undone by their inability to score tries and keep out the French flair. Wales are a flair team also and I expect them to have tightened their defence up after leaking points against the Oul Enemy. Euan Murray comes back for the Scots while Nathan Hines is out, their Lions and Leinster 2nd row will be a huge loss. Scotland are always better at home then they are away and have only won 3 of their last 25 6 Nations matches on the road.
Prediction: The bookmakers have this game priced at Wales (-10) for the 80 minute game which I feel is about right considering a lot of the previous games involving these two countries have finished with a 8-15 point margin. If I was pushed on this I would be taking Wales on the handicap. However, I feel the action offered on Wales (-5) in the 2nd half is the play @ 1.9 with Ladbrokes is the most enticing offer. This means that the game is effectively 0-0 at the start of the second half. Wales are the classic second half team throughout their 6 Nations historical results, tight going into the break and then they let loose after wearing down the opposition. This game seems like it has that written all over it. Scotland are going to try to play percentage, kicking rugby and pin back the Welsh, they have even admitted so in the media. This tactic involves a lot of defending and it can work for a while until the defence tires in the 2nd half and then expect the lethal Welsh backline to let lose and win the game in the 2nd half. Remember as well if Wales start to score tries which is what they love to do, Scotland will have to abandon their Chris Paterson led penalty kicking tactic resulting in them having to go for tries and failing to see the scoreboard tick over as efficiently.
Pick: Wales (-5) in the 2nd half @ 1.9 with Ladbrokes - 4 units.
Value Hunting
I am still looking for some value in these game and if I find some I will post before kick off's tomorrow. I think the bookmakers have nailed the odds this week and value is a difficult proposition.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Line Movements
Italy v England - spread ranging from -13 (Boyles) to -15 (Paddy Power)
Wales v Scotland - lowest spread is -9 (Ladbrokes) every where else -10, Paddy Power gone out to -11 on this one
France v Ireland - ranging from -5 (Boyles and Paddy Power) to -6 (Ladbrokes)
Wales v Scotland - lowest spread is -9 (Ladbrokes) every where else -10, Paddy Power gone out to -11 on this one
France v Ireland - ranging from -5 (Boyles and Paddy Power) to -6 (Ladbrokes)
Monday, February 8, 2010
Line Movements
Boylesports have moved their lines on the Wales and Italy matches to equilibrium with the market. Best available is now Wales (-10) and Italy (+13).
Early Week 2 Handicaps
Wales v Scotland - Wales (-9) Boylesports and Bet365 - Also at -10 with some of the online firms.
France v Ireland - France (-5) Boylesports - Also at -6 with some of the online firms.
Italy v England - Italy (+12) Boylesports - Also at -13 with some of the online firms.
All at 1.90, remember Boylesports went to evens last week closer to game day so hold out for those if your making a late pick.
Thoughts: All quite close to my handicap forecasts. 9 on Wales seems a little high, although they did look like they could score some tries against England whereas Scotland look like they will rely on Chris Paterson's boot for the competition. I don't see this line moving too much before kick off, maybe some action on Scotland will bring it in a bit closer. France are getting 5 points on Ireland which is probably about right, could be some line movement if a lot of action comes in on this one. England need to score to beat 12 points to cover against Italy and that game will see the most analysis this week I think and is the one were we are likely to see the most interesting line moves.
France v Ireland - France (-5) Boylesports - Also at -6 with some of the online firms.
Italy v England - Italy (+12) Boylesports - Also at -13 with some of the online firms.
All at 1.90, remember Boylesports went to evens last week closer to game day so hold out for those if your making a late pick.
Thoughts: All quite close to my handicap forecasts. 9 on Wales seems a little high, although they did look like they could score some tries against England whereas Scotland look like they will rely on Chris Paterson's boot for the competition. I don't see this line moving too much before kick off, maybe some action on Scotland will bring it in a bit closer. France are getting 5 points on Ireland which is probably about right, could be some line movement if a lot of action comes in on this one. England need to score to beat 12 points to cover against Italy and that game will see the most analysis this week I think and is the one were we are likely to see the most interesting line moves.
Sunday, February 7, 2010
Week Two Fixtures and Handicap Forecasts
Saturday, 13 February 2010
France v Ireland, 16:30 - France (-3)
Wales v Scotland, 14:00 - Wales (-6)
Sunday, 14 February 2010
Italy v England, 14:30 - Italy (+12)
France v Ireland, 16:30 - France (-3)
Wales v Scotland, 14:00 - Wales (-6)
Sunday, 14 February 2010
Italy v England, 14:30 - Italy (+12)
Week One Recap
So a 3 unit profit on the weekend.
The one main pick came in as France covered the spread against Scotland.
Rob Kearney's lazy lazy clearance against Italy cost me a 7 unit profit on the week one accumulator as Ireland failed to cover by 3 points.
Results:
Ireland 29-11 Italy
England 30-17 Wales
Scotland 9-18 France
The one main pick came in as France covered the spread against Scotland.
Rob Kearney's lazy lazy clearance against Italy cost me a 7 unit profit on the week one accumulator as Ireland failed to cover by 3 points.
Results:
Ireland 29-11 Italy
England 30-17 Wales
Scotland 9-18 France
Friday, February 5, 2010
Week One: Accumulator
I'm going to do a weekly accumulator on each round of the 6 Nations, more fun then anything else, where I'll try to beat the spread on all 3 games. If I bet 1 unit on each of these and win only 1 over the course of the tournament I'll still be up 2 units.
Ireland (-21) v Italy - Hard one to call at that spread. Ireland will obviously win the game but at what margin of victory is the question. Down the years Ireland have struggled to run up big scores against teams. Italy will be fresh and ready to maintain pride as they always do. The last two home games in this series have seen Ireland win but by small margins although the last game in Lansdowne Road was in terrible windy conditions and the last game in Croke Park was the first game after Ireland's World Cup shambles. Ireland did run up decent scores against the Italians in Rome the last two times but the important point is that they weren't the first game of the campaign when passes go astray and moves haven't been prefected. Italy are coming off a decent Autumn when they beat Somoa and weren't humilated against some high calibre Southern Hemisphere opposition. BUT Sergio Parrise is out for them, this would be like Ireland losing Brian O'Driscoll, Paul O'Connell and 2 other starters: this man is that key to this team. All in all it just comes to down how many times Ireland can break them down and such and because I don't want to root against my boys I'm going with Ireland (-21) @ 2.00 Boylesports.
England (-4) v Wales - Very hard game to call. A lot of talk of a resurgent England and the selection does seem very positive from Martin Johnson. Of key importance is the presence of Riki Flutey who will take pressure of Johnny Wilkinson and provide a dynamic threat going forward. Wales front row has been decimated. Wales looked like a team in decline in the Autumn but how many times have we said that and then they go and win a grand slam? Wales have a terrible record in Twickenham. England and Johnson in particular need this win and I expect them to get it and such I am taking England (-4) @ 2.00 Boylesports.
Scotland (-7) v France - See the below post for my thoughts on this one. Your probably wondering why I am taking -7 here and not -6.5 that's available with Ladbrokes? That comes down to the odds offered here by Boylesports which is evens on all the handicaps and not 1.91 offered in most other places. Pick: France (-7) @ 2.00 Boylesports.
Overall Accumulator: 1 unit on Ireland (-21), England (-4) and France (-7) @ 8.00 at Boylesports.
I won't make a habit of always taking the team laying points but I feel this weekend it's what makes sense most with little recent form to help.
Ireland (-21) v Italy - Hard one to call at that spread. Ireland will obviously win the game but at what margin of victory is the question. Down the years Ireland have struggled to run up big scores against teams. Italy will be fresh and ready to maintain pride as they always do. The last two home games in this series have seen Ireland win but by small margins although the last game in Lansdowne Road was in terrible windy conditions and the last game in Croke Park was the first game after Ireland's World Cup shambles. Ireland did run up decent scores against the Italians in Rome the last two times but the important point is that they weren't the first game of the campaign when passes go astray and moves haven't been prefected. Italy are coming off a decent Autumn when they beat Somoa and weren't humilated against some high calibre Southern Hemisphere opposition. BUT Sergio Parrise is out for them, this would be like Ireland losing Brian O'Driscoll, Paul O'Connell and 2 other starters: this man is that key to this team. All in all it just comes to down how many times Ireland can break them down and such and because I don't want to root against my boys I'm going with Ireland (-21) @ 2.00 Boylesports.
England (-4) v Wales - Very hard game to call. A lot of talk of a resurgent England and the selection does seem very positive from Martin Johnson. Of key importance is the presence of Riki Flutey who will take pressure of Johnny Wilkinson and provide a dynamic threat going forward. Wales front row has been decimated. Wales looked like a team in decline in the Autumn but how many times have we said that and then they go and win a grand slam? Wales have a terrible record in Twickenham. England and Johnson in particular need this win and I expect them to get it and such I am taking England (-4) @ 2.00 Boylesports.
Scotland (-7) v France - See the below post for my thoughts on this one. Your probably wondering why I am taking -7 here and not -6.5 that's available with Ladbrokes? That comes down to the odds offered here by Boylesports which is evens on all the handicaps and not 1.91 offered in most other places. Pick: France (-7) @ 2.00 Boylesports.
Overall Accumulator: 1 unit on Ireland (-21), England (-4) and France (-7) @ 8.00 at Boylesports.
I won't make a habit of always taking the team laying points but I feel this weekend it's what makes sense most with little recent form to help.
Official Pick - 6th/7th February
I've only got one main pick this weekend and it's the one I have liked all week.
Scotland v France - France (-6.5) @ 1.91 at Ladbrokes.
My reasons for this pick:
1. If Scotland want to do well in this game they will have to keep in tight and turn it into a bad game. Teams do this with forward domination, while Scotland do have a decent pack I think France have the most dominant pack in the 6 Nations this year.
2. Euan Murray won't play for Scotland because it's a Sunday.
3. France beat New Zealand away and dominated the world champions at home last year but the did get a mauling by New Zealand in the last game of the Autumn Internationals.
4. Scotland are getting a lot of credit for beating Australia in the Autumn by 9-8 when Giteau missed a chip shot in the last minute to win for Australia. Australia aren't a huge force in world rugby at the moment so this win is not as impressive as it sounds. Scotland will aim to the same in this game but France have more flair then the Wallabies to break down the resistance.
5. Half backs is probably the weakest position for the French which infers they won't use the tactic of kicking it all the time and will use the backs to unpick the Scottish defensive lock.
I think this game will start very tight and the Scottish will require some breaking down but the French flair should come through in the end. It is not inconcievable for Scotland do to a job here as France are slow starters but so are they. The bookies have priced this match as France to win 71% of the time I see it more like 85-90% of the time meaning there is some value here to be had if you agree with that probability assessment. Scotland have only beaten France once this decade so history would tend to agree with my maths (note: this doesn't infer they will win and cover the spread which is what is needed).
4 units on France to cover the -6.5 handicap at 1.91.
Scotland v France - France (-6.5) @ 1.91 at Ladbrokes.
My reasons for this pick:
1. If Scotland want to do well in this game they will have to keep in tight and turn it into a bad game. Teams do this with forward domination, while Scotland do have a decent pack I think France have the most dominant pack in the 6 Nations this year.
2. Euan Murray won't play for Scotland because it's a Sunday.
3. France beat New Zealand away and dominated the world champions at home last year but the did get a mauling by New Zealand in the last game of the Autumn Internationals.
4. Scotland are getting a lot of credit for beating Australia in the Autumn by 9-8 when Giteau missed a chip shot in the last minute to win for Australia. Australia aren't a huge force in world rugby at the moment so this win is not as impressive as it sounds. Scotland will aim to the same in this game but France have more flair then the Wallabies to break down the resistance.
5. Half backs is probably the weakest position for the French which infers they won't use the tactic of kicking it all the time and will use the backs to unpick the Scottish defensive lock.
I think this game will start very tight and the Scottish will require some breaking down but the French flair should come through in the end. It is not inconcievable for Scotland do to a job here as France are slow starters but so are they. The bookies have priced this match as France to win 71% of the time I see it more like 85-90% of the time meaning there is some value here to be had if you agree with that probability assessment. Scotland have only beaten France once this decade so history would tend to agree with my maths (note: this doesn't infer they will win and cover the spread which is what is needed).
4 units on France to cover the -6.5 handicap at 1.91.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
England v Wales Line Movement
Matthew Rees and Gethin Jenkins out for Wales. Front row down two starters. Lines have reacted, Wales out to +4 with most books but you can still get them at +2.5 with Paddy Power. Anti English bias of the Irish betting public?
Thursday Line Moves
Ireland v Italy - All the books have moved out on the line, as I forecast. Paddy Power, Boylesports and Ladbrokes all have the game at -21 while some of the online firms have the game still at -20.
England v Wales - Most books still have this at -3 but Bet365 and Victor Chandler have moved to -4. This reflects their exposure to the English market but should also provide an indication of where the money is going in regard to future line movements.
Scotland v France - Most books holding this at -7 bar one online firm Sporting Bet which has it at -6. Ladbrokes still have the no draw handicap at -6.5 on France, while Paddy Power is going in the other direction with -7.5 on the no draw so if you like Scotland take them there.
I'm struggling to find value picks on these games at the moment and I will prob wait till tomorrow for the final picks when the weather becomes clearer but I'm expecting to only make some small plays on this weekend.
One thing this blog exercise has clearly pointed out is that I need to set up an online account with all the bookmakers to get the best value. I've put the wheels in motion on that one but it will probably take a week or two to get myself set with bank accounts etc.
England v Wales - Most books still have this at -3 but Bet365 and Victor Chandler have moved to -4. This reflects their exposure to the English market but should also provide an indication of where the money is going in regard to future line movements.
Scotland v France - Most books holding this at -7 bar one online firm Sporting Bet which has it at -6. Ladbrokes still have the no draw handicap at -6.5 on France, while Paddy Power is going in the other direction with -7.5 on the no draw so if you like Scotland take them there.
I'm struggling to find value picks on these games at the moment and I will prob wait till tomorrow for the final picks when the weather becomes clearer but I'm expecting to only make some small plays on this weekend.
One thing this blog exercise has clearly pointed out is that I need to set up an online account with all the bookmakers to get the best value. I've put the wheels in motion on that one but it will probably take a week or two to get myself set with bank accounts etc.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Ireland v Italy Line Moving
Line has moved out to -21 with Boyle Sports. As predicted the line is moving out and you would expect it to only go in one direction as the game approaches.
Scotland v France Handicap
Ladbrokes have their "no draw" handicap up and France (-6.5) is 1.91, so take that instead of -7 at the same price that way France only need 7 points to cover not 8.
Picks to come tomorrow or Friday.
Picks to come tomorrow or Friday.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Ireland Team
Ireland team to play Italy at Croke Park, Saturday 2 February (2.30pm):
15 - Rob Kearney (UCD/Leinster)14 - Tommy Bowe (Ospreys)13 - Brian O'Driscoll (UCD/Leinster) (capt)12 - Gordon D'Arcy (Lansdowne/Leinster)11 - Andrew Trimble (Ballymena/Ulster)10 - Ronan O'Gara (Cork Constitution/Munster)9 - Tomas O'Leary (Dolphin/Munster)1 - Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster)2 - Jerry Flannery (Shannon/Munster)3 - John Hayes (Bruff/Munster)4 - Donncha O'Callaghan (Cork Constitution/Munster)5 - Paul O'Connell (Young Munster/Munster)6 - Kevin McLaughlin (St. Mary's College/Leinster)7 - David Wallace (Garryowen/Munster)8 - Jamie Heaslip (Naas/Leinster)
Replacements:
16 - Rory Best (Banbridge/Ulster)17 - Tom Court (Malone/Ulster)18 - Leo Cullen (Blackrock College/Leinster)19 - Sean O'Brien (Clontarf/Leinster)20 - Eoin Reddan (Lansdowne/Leinster)21 - Paddy Wallace (Ballymena/Ulster)22 - Keith Earls (Young Munster/Munster)
Unavailable due to injury:
Jonathan Sexton (St. Mary's College/Leinster)Stephen Ferris (Dungannon/Ulster)
15 - Rob Kearney (UCD/Leinster)14 - Tommy Bowe (Ospreys)13 - Brian O'Driscoll (UCD/Leinster) (capt)12 - Gordon D'Arcy (Lansdowne/Leinster)11 - Andrew Trimble (Ballymena/Ulster)10 - Ronan O'Gara (Cork Constitution/Munster)9 - Tomas O'Leary (Dolphin/Munster)1 - Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster)2 - Jerry Flannery (Shannon/Munster)3 - John Hayes (Bruff/Munster)4 - Donncha O'Callaghan (Cork Constitution/Munster)5 - Paul O'Connell (Young Munster/Munster)6 - Kevin McLaughlin (St. Mary's College/Leinster)7 - David Wallace (Garryowen/Munster)8 - Jamie Heaslip (Naas/Leinster)
Replacements:
16 - Rory Best (Banbridge/Ulster)17 - Tom Court (Malone/Ulster)18 - Leo Cullen (Blackrock College/Leinster)19 - Sean O'Brien (Clontarf/Leinster)20 - Eoin Reddan (Lansdowne/Leinster)21 - Paddy Wallace (Ballymena/Ulster)22 - Keith Earls (Young Munster/Munster)
Unavailable due to injury:
Jonathan Sexton (St. Mary's College/Leinster)Stephen Ferris (Dungannon/Ulster)
Bet365 Scotland v France
Bet365 have the spread on the Scotland game at (+6) at 9% juice. If I had easy access to this bookmaker I would probably put a serious bet on the French at -6. Below that crucial number of 7.
Spreads from other bookmakers
Checked out the spreads on offer from 3 of the bookmakers with Irish shops last night:
They all have the England and France games at the same spreads as on Victor Chandler but there is some variation in the Irish match.
Boylesports and Ladbrokes both have Ireland at -20 while Paddy Power have Ireland at -21.
So basically if your betting on this game with Paddy Power you are paying a 2 point premium over Victor Chandler. While it may not be easy for Irish players to be on Victor Chandler if your betting on this game today get on it in Boylesports or Ladbrokes (if your taking Ireland!). Since Paddy Power would have a large market share in the recreational Irish betting market the fact that they are offering a worse spread on the match isn't surprising when many patrioic betters will take Ireland no matter what the spread is come Saturday.
They all have the England and France games at the same spreads as on Victor Chandler but there is some variation in the Irish match.
Boylesports and Ladbrokes both have Ireland at -20 while Paddy Power have Ireland at -21.
So basically if your betting on this game with Paddy Power you are paying a 2 point premium over Victor Chandler. While it may not be easy for Irish players to be on Victor Chandler if your betting on this game today get on it in Boylesports or Ladbrokes (if your taking Ireland!). Since Paddy Power would have a large market share in the recreational Irish betting market the fact that they are offering a worse spread on the match isn't surprising when many patrioic betters will take Ireland no matter what the spread is come Saturday.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Victor Chandler Spreads for the Weekend
Six Nations - England v Wales - 6/02/2010 Handicap -
England (-3)
Six Nations - Ireland v Italy - 6/02/2010 Handicap -
Ireland (-19)
Six Nations - Scotland v France - 7/02/2010 Handicap -
Scotland (+7)
All got 9% Juice (1.91 Odds)
So your probably wondering why I am using Victor Chandler odds, well thats because it's one of the few I have access to right now but you can be sure most bookmakers will have similar spreads.
My spread predicitions were reasonably close. My early thoughts on these games is that my favourite pick so far would be France to cover against Scotland. There's a good chance France could roll Scotland and I think they are getting far too much credit for beating a tired and poor Australian team in a slugfest. I'm surprised the Irish spread is so low particularly as I can see Ireland getting a lot of the public money come the weekend. Could be an early pick on this one after I see the team tomorrow. England v Wales is going to be a huge game and is going make or break one of the teams 6 nations on the first weekend. Twickenham is a hard place to go but England are not even close to the power they used to be. Could be a very small unit pick on that one.
As always, weather and team selection will be huge so no picks as yet.
England (-3)
Six Nations - Ireland v Italy - 6/02/2010 Handicap -
Ireland (-19)
Six Nations - Scotland v France - 7/02/2010 Handicap -
Scotland (+7)
All got 9% Juice (1.91 Odds)
So your probably wondering why I am using Victor Chandler odds, well thats because it's one of the few I have access to right now but you can be sure most bookmakers will have similar spreads.
My spread predicitions were reasonably close. My early thoughts on these games is that my favourite pick so far would be France to cover against Scotland. There's a good chance France could roll Scotland and I think they are getting far too much credit for beating a tired and poor Australian team in a slugfest. I'm surprised the Irish spread is so low particularly as I can see Ireland getting a lot of the public money come the weekend. Could be an early pick on this one after I see the team tomorrow. England v Wales is going to be a huge game and is going make or break one of the teams 6 nations on the first weekend. Twickenham is a hard place to go but England are not even close to the power they used to be. Could be a very small unit pick on that one.
As always, weather and team selection will be huge so no picks as yet.
Spread Predictions
Early predicitions for the opening spreads this weekend:
Ireland (-24) v Italy
England (-7) v Wales
Scotland (+10) v France
Ireland (-24) v Italy
England (-7) v Wales
Scotland (+10) v France
6 Nations Fixture List
RBS 6 Nations Championship 2010 Fixture List:
Saturday 6 February
14:30 - Ireland v Italy
17:00 - England v Wales
Sunday 7 February
15:00 - Scotland v France
Saturday 13 February
14:00 - Wales v Scotland
16:30 (17:30 local) - France v Ireland
Sunday 14 February
14.30 (15:30 local) - Italy v England
Friday 26 February
20:00 - Wales v France
Saturday 27 February
13:30 (14:30 local) - Italy v Scotland
16:00 - England v Ireland
Saturday 13 March
14:30 - Ireland v Wales
17:00 - Scotland v England
Sunday 14 March
14:30 (15.30 local) - France v Italy
Saturday 20 March
14:30 - Wales v Italy
17:00 - Ireland v Scotland
19:45 (20:45 local) - France v England
Saturday 6 February
14:30 - Ireland v Italy
17:00 - England v Wales
Sunday 7 February
15:00 - Scotland v France
Saturday 13 February
14:00 - Wales v Scotland
16:30 (17:30 local) - France v Ireland
Sunday 14 February
14.30 (15:30 local) - Italy v England
Friday 26 February
20:00 - Wales v France
Saturday 27 February
13:30 (14:30 local) - Italy v Scotland
16:00 - England v Ireland
Saturday 13 March
14:30 - Ireland v Wales
17:00 - Scotland v England
Sunday 14 March
14:30 (15.30 local) - France v Italy
Saturday 20 March
14:30 - Wales v Italy
17:00 - Ireland v Scotland
19:45 (20:45 local) - France v England
Welcome
Welcome to my betting blog. I am going to give this a go and see how I get on. Going to be some serious betting on the 6 nations over the next few weeks so I will post my picks and logic for the picks up here.
5 weeks, 15 games.
I will use a unit system to class each bet - between 1 and 10 units.
Will there be a profit at the end? Lets hope so.
5 weeks, 15 games.
I will use a unit system to class each bet - between 1 and 10 units.
Will there be a profit at the end? Lets hope so.
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